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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    Good Lord! That's lung freezing cold right there.
  2. Met1985
    Yep saw that also. That is something we rarely see in winter. It's very impressive for sure.
  3. Met1985
    Good Lord we've not seen temps this cold in several years in the region here. Personally I could do without that.
  4. Met1985
    Excellent post as always! Even though I live in WNC your posts are always on point and thought provoking.
  5. Met1985
    Models are modeling. All ill say is the the ensembles are still looking good. The cold air will be around we just need things to match up. Just be patient. We are fixing to enter into much better climo snow wise.
  6. Met1985
    Yeah the moisture will be there especially after what we've seen but the ridge. Trough axis is what will make us or brake us.
  7. Met1985
    Yeah great analysis guys. Possibly record breaking pressure, record breaking cold, and lots of moving mechanisms for this pattern to take place. Storm or no storm the cold is going to be around. But as many have mentioned is the tendency going to be more Nina like or are we going to be getting in on the action equally. Questions, questions.
  8. Met1985
    Yeah we actually sank to 27 this morning with heavy frost. Went into town and no frost.
  9. Met1985
    Oh one change and we can be screwed. Everything dumps out west which 2 years ago we saw...
  10. Met1985
    From some im reading that winter will be on the other side of the conus.. The op models have warmed but I still think they are correcting but I could be wrong.
  11. Met1985
    Winter cancel.
  12. Met1985
    Also im going to say the op model runs can look great or horrible. Currently ride the ensembles until we get something in with 3 days.
  13. Met1985
    The NAO is negative. The AO is anonymously negative at negative 4 SD. The PNA is finally forecast to because neutral to positive and we look to gain a true negative EPO. That's a lot to freaking figure out on the models. But yeah we may ens up at 40 degrees and wet or dry. Can always happen.
  14. Met1985
    Lots of ways to fail and win. The models are struggling mightily with the blocking in my opinion because it is so deep.
  15. Met1985
  16. Met1985
    Eye candy
  17. Met1985
    The GEFS is the best run yet! That is a thing of beauty.
  18. Met1985
    More changes with the first initial push of cold air from the gfs... Color me skeptical but I don't think we have seen our last adjustments from the model. It doesn't look bad but there is room for deeper cold and a better push. I just about guarantee the ensembles will support a better push of cold air through the region.
  19. Met1985
    Yeah the gfs has gone to crap. We are within 5 days of a pattern change and it cannot get it's head out of the sand. Pathetic.
  20. Met1985
    GEFS says 5 days for our pattern change and much colder pattern for our area. The ensembles have been rock steady today.
  21. Met1985
    Wherher you call it trends or what the gfs spits out a different solution... This solution is a step towards the Euro but the gfs is absolutely freaking useless to me... The run to run wild swings from that damn model are crazy.
  22. Met1985
    Yeah once again I think the gfs is on an island all by itself. I could be wrong but im sticking to the Euro.
  23. Met1985
    Temps been dropping since this morning. Down to 44 already with continued thick clouds.
  24. Met1985
    Yeah I think there has been some serious damage done to the model since this upgrade. It's behaving erratic and there is no continuity from run to run. To me it's the worst model we have currently.
  25. Met1985
    This is like a broken record but again the GEFS does not agree with the OP. It blasts the front through here and the majority of us get cold.
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