Met1985

Yeah 17 at my location. The ground temp has lowered considerably.

The little event for Thursday night still looks good on the 12z model run.

Yeah im really intrigued by that little system first.

Yeah I agree we are starting to see things come together and it's not like we are 10 days out for this storm. A lot of possibilities on the table from flurries to an all out raging snowstorm.

Yeah there needs to be continuity with the models and right now there isn't much but plenty of time for things to come together.

Lol yeah that is perfect. I do think the pattern relaxes in February and this spring will be pretty up and down.

You know it! It's about time we saw this shitty pattern break just in time for peak climo.

Yeah definitely need the models to line up but fun to track at the very least.

Again the GFS depicts several little chances for snow and cold throughout the whole run. Really this is one of the best patterns I've seen in several years setting up.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A low pressure system will quickly cross the mountains from the northwest Thursday night. Light snow accumulations will be possible with the passage of this system, especially along the higher elevations and near the Tennessee border. A stronger storm system may arrive from the west over the weekend. More significant snow accumulations will be possible Saturday into Sunday. All interests should closely monitor this system since impacts could be substantial, but are highly uncertain at present.

On the backside of the storm with more cold air dumping in we see NW Flow setup also. Shoot the little event Friday gives the border counties 3 to 6 inches.

Great PBP Burger. Thank you. What an epic run for the region.

Verbatim the GFS spits out anywhere from a foot plus all through the mountains and surrounding areas. There would be some epic totals in this storm if it wound up like this.

Big time run by the GFS for the SE. Burger has a great play by play in the main thread but this run would be epic.

So far the GFS is advertising some upslope snow around Friday which will set the stage for cold air being here for the Sunday storm.

Canadian gives some snow but the low is suppressed which again is fine. We are 6 days out. There will be a N trend.

The Canadian is looking pretty good so far. Kind of running slow but the storm is there. The UKIE was way suppressed which is perfectly ok at this point.

Again multiple threats of snow all through the GFS run. As people have noted in the storm thread the GEFS have cut totals significantly but I like were we are at. We will have the cold in here we just need the moisture. Lots of runs to go.

Yeah this has been a full reversal for sure. I think January we see the best chances then we warm back up in February and then things get jumbled in March and April with a hodgepodge of cold and warm.

Yeah state wide snowstorm for everyone! What a run this is.

Man you are in my thoughts and prayers. Hoping for a full recovery.

18z holds steady and ups the precipitation by a lot in some areas. Multiple threats and cold air. Im game.

Yep this looks really good for sure.

The GFS basically has three chances for some snow back to back, to back with very cold air filtering in with each system. We haven't had that in years here.

The details are not important at this point but the big picture of having the low with cold air and the setup looks really good for this time frame. But don't be surprised to see the models have some wilds jumps from run to run.