Met1985

GFS still looks like a solid hit for the border counties. Takes the low up just East of the Apps. Like like a decent 2 to 4 to 3 to 6 in the high elevations right along the border. Im excited for this little event. Cold temps to start and crashing temps into the teens and possibly single digits by Friday morning.

I think the more amped it is it could be pulled further north but give way more credit towards the GFS and the EURO especially with the recent track record of the short range models recently. Sure it could happen but the short range models have been piss poor as of late.

Exactly!

Yeah the low is not as far south on the NAM but I personally don't trust the NAM especially after this past storm and the jumping around of this storm.

It's coming.

Another solid run by the GFS for the mountains.

They should. They have been jumping around a lot but a lot of positive signs.

Also looking ahead the ensembles from the EURO and the GFS look great for repeated cold fronts pushing through. Looks like an active pattern is setting up for the month of January. Looks like currently the AO and the NAO both go negative mid month and the PNA finally relaxes and possibly goes positive. Lots of good things to look at for this month.

Heck yeah! That's what im talking about!

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Patrick- Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, and Amherst 1254 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

On the Tennessee side of the Mountains they have issued a WSW for 3-7 inches of snow

Still looks good right on the border counties. If you are away from the border you are not going to see much at all. I'd say 1-3 inches is a fair bet with much better ground conditions

Again the the ground temp is taking a beating, we have cold air in place, and this is a decent setup with some very cold air behind the system.

Yeah this is the best run so far. Great trends today by the EURO and the GFS.

An even better run yet again from the GFS. Slow but positive changes for us over on this side of the storm. Definitely some decent totals and more expensive snow cover showing up.

A weird run on the NAM but the GFS will be rolling in soon. Just one run at a time. This is going to be one of those time I think last minute adjustments to the low will produce or take away....

Yeah this pattern has the ability to finally produce something...

Yep this little system has become a great interest in our area. Colder ground, not starting out at 70 degrees, and no convective feedback issues.

18 GFS looks a bit better for us again. Small improvements each run it seems. There are a lot more positives to take away from this setup I believe.

Yeah ironically my two properties are tucked back in a hollar. The property in Crabtree faces Canton. I can see Ingles in Canton and Mt Pisgah from my front porch. Both places radiate very well. Yeah I think you might be right on the snow on the ground.

Yeah guys all good trends by the models today. The Euro brings even more moisture in and the GFS makes a big jump east with the snow line. NAM took a step also. Like I said looks like this could be a nice advisory level system especially for the border counties.

Had a low of 12 this morning under the fresh snowpack. The ground temps will take a big hit this week.

Euro trending better for the border counties for the Thursday night event. Currently looks like advisory event stuff.

Yeah on my side it says plugin is not supported. Thanks for the link.

Link doesn't work bud.