Met1985

We will do very well where we are at also.

I hope yall close to the border get hammered fellas! Best of luck this way.

Gsp of course waiting until tomorrow morning but hey we love our weather guys at the gsp. The trends on the NAM are very telling. Asheville has continued to see an uptick in snowfall and this latest run really sees a much more uniform snow line across a large portion of the mountains. You can also see the connection from lake Michigan right into our mountain areas more and more with each run. The euro had this as well and each model run only strengthens this connection. Someone here in the mountains is getting a foot plus on this side. I just about guarantee that.

I've got no damn clue what yall are talking about with the gefs. Does it look horrible? Not to me. It doesn't look great but it's not far off. It kind of dumps the cold in the Midwest then bleeds east but Canada is cold so that's good. The eps to me is rock steady as she goes. Still looks much better than the crap we are currently in.

Of course the eps is fallible just like the GEFS and the cmc ensembles but just going by the verification scores recently the gfs has been behind by a significant bit. More so than in the past. But as you have greatly detailed a lot of uncertainty still remains with this possible change in the pattern or no change at all.

Oh yeah it could be right but the gfs has been extremely bad recently since the upgrade. We'll see what the 12z eps run looks like.

@Holston_River_Rambler has a great write up about the fetch of moisture coming off off Lake Michigan that yall should go read. Again we get hammered whenever the flow sets up this way.

The eps has been honking and honking about a model change from around the 20th or 22nd and the cmc ensembles have had it also which both those models have been scorching the gfs since its upgrad.

The freaking GFS is broke. The government turn of mediocre model into shit. Don't believe a dang thing that model spits out. The verification scores with that model since the upgrade have been atrocious.

The NAM does much better than the globals do yes.

Yeah and it's still snowing at hour 84 on the NAM. This isn't the NAM'S best hours but you have the cmc, euro, NAM, and gfs all look very good. It'll be interesting to see the NAM 3K Once this storm gets closer.

About dang time the NAM woke up. Really fits in with the Euro.

Oh yeah we look solid for this event! A great NW flow setting up.

You should. Will probably be the only time you'll see snow all winter.

You should do well there according to the model runs.

Was just fixing to say with the stronger northern vort this is what I'd expect. The gfs doesn't see that for some reason. A great look.

Good morning! These inversion events that we have we just kill it in temps. Having elevation and living in a bowl helps a lot with these events. Current temp is 21 degrees. A lot colder than forecasted. Still a strong signal for upslope snow. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 inches to 3-6 in the highest elevations. Also this squall line that will be blowing through could bring some pretty severe weather with it as well. Possibly high winds and some hail and torrential rainfall.

Im down to 27 currently. It's been a very slow drop from sunset to now. 33 to 27.

Duke is absolutely wonderful. They did brain surgery on my mother and they are too notch. Best wishes and prayers.

Great runs by the cmc and the gfs on the 12z suites. Steady she goes.

Overnight suites still look very good. The euro was much more robust with the northern vort coming down so the totals were upped a good bit more and much more colder. We are 4 days out and this is exactly what we want to see from the euro. The cmc still looks like a nice hit for the mountains. The gfs still looks good. Back off of totals a bit but still a strong signal there and that's about all you can ask for from that model. Also all three of the big three ensembles look great for a pattern change around the 20th. The eps and cmc looks great. The gfs is getting there but we know it's a broken model currently....

Ill be short and sweet. 00z gfs looks great for the border counties still. Everyone have a wonderful night.

Could not have put it any better. My exact thoughts about this year so far. Besides minimal snow I give this cold season a B so far because of the colder Fall and extreme temps we just had. Very well put.

Thank you! The bipolar that is on here currently is amazing.... This fits in line with a lot of the signals that we are seeing in the long range. From all three of the major model ensembles. The dang eps looks fantastic in the long range.

No not at all but there is a lot of meltdowns this weekend and people canceling winter already when we are just in the first of January. Seems like we go through this same song and dance every damn year even though most people's average snowfall is minimal.