Met1985

Big time cell fixing to hit me. Torrential rainfall and high winds.

The wind is really picking up ahead of this squall line. Heads up for the SW mountains.

To the newbies on here that are fixing to enjoy this upslope dream don't really worry about totals and what not at this point. As eyewall pointed out with flow snow as long as you have a strong signal things will proceed. This is different than a synoptic storm. All models have a difficult time with flow snow because we have so many peaks above 3500' and we have some really small microclimates in the mountains that can produce huge totals given the right setup. The signal is there still very much so and at this point just sit back and wait for tomorrow morning to come.

Well I was off a bit. Hoisted up the warning right off the bat. Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville, and Stecoah 340 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...The North Carolina mountain counties along the Tennessee border. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.

GSP will hoist a watch up tomorrow morning then a warning tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah that line looks to mean business. Probably torrential rainfall, hail, and high winds.

Gfs still looks good but at this point this is where the short range models come into the light. Also this is going to be a long duration event especially with the energy wrapping up so tightly. A lot of moisture and a lot of energy.

Also don't overlook the squall line blowing through here tomorrow night. That thing is going to be potent and may cause some damage also.

Yeah gfs is really latching onto the fetch of moisture off of Lake Michigan this run.

I definitely think some streamers will make it over the mountains into the foothills with this one if the trends continue to look good.

Yeah I think Friday night a lot of people see some snow.

Yeah a foot plus! Im liking what im seeing across a large portion of the mountains.

The NAM has some very robust and impressive totals along the border counties. I think we are really seeing an uptick in snowfall because the model is catching onto the fetch of moisture coming across lake Michigan which will just feed directly into this northern vort.

The NAM is very impressive. Still rolling in but looks very robust.

I have no faith in that freaking model this season....

18z gefs was not a bad look at all. A very doable pattern and a better look than the 12z gefs for sure.

We will do very well where we are at also.

I hope yall close to the border get hammered fellas! Best of luck this way.

Gsp of course waiting until tomorrow morning but hey we love our weather guys at the gsp. The trends on the NAM are very telling. Asheville has continued to see an uptick in snowfall and this latest run really sees a much more uniform snow line across a large portion of the mountains. You can also see the connection from lake Michigan right into our mountain areas more and more with each run. The euro had this as well and each model run only strengthens this connection. Someone here in the mountains is getting a foot plus on this side. I just about guarantee that.

I've got no damn clue what yall are talking about with the gefs. Does it look horrible? Not to me. It doesn't look great but it's not far off. It kind of dumps the cold in the Midwest then bleeds east but Canada is cold so that's good. The eps to me is rock steady as she goes. Still looks much better than the crap we are currently in.

Of course the eps is fallible just like the GEFS and the cmc ensembles but just going by the verification scores recently the gfs has been behind by a significant bit. More so than in the past. But as you have greatly detailed a lot of uncertainty still remains with this possible change in the pattern or no change at all.

Oh yeah it could be right but the gfs has been extremely bad recently since the upgrade. We'll see what the 12z eps run looks like.

@Holston_River_Rambler has a great write up about the fetch of moisture coming off off Lake Michigan that yall should go read. Again we get hammered whenever the flow sets up this way.

The eps has been honking and honking about a model change from around the 20th or 22nd and the cmc ensembles have had it also which both those models have been scorching the gfs since its upgrad.

The freaking GFS is broke. The government turn of mediocre model into shit. Don't believe a dang thing that model spits out. The verification scores with that model since the upgrade have been atrocious.