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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    No happy hour on the 18z. Actually probably one of the worst runs the past few days. The cold air just really slowly bleeds in but not a push like what has been showing. I expect more changes though as the verification scores for the op gfs have been meager recently...
  2. Met1985
    Yeah no kidding! I mean any little change from the above mentioned will change the pattern but dang the euro and the eps is a thing of beauty.
  3. Met1985
    Dang the 12z eps is a thing of beautiful! I mean we've not seen a look this good in years in my opinion. I mean this pattern change is on our doorstep. We are roughly 6 days away from this pattern change for us. Just an absolute beautiful run for us. Storm or no storm this is exciting times coming up.
  4. Met1985
    The 12z euro is cold. Colder than the gfs. No storm next week but it brings down colder air further south which means days of upslope in my opinion. The euro stays cold through the end of the run with a huge high coming down from Canada also at the end.
  5. Met1985
    All in all im happy with todays runs. Everything still looks good from the 15th on. I think in our region we are in the middle. The battle ground which im fine with. We get most of our best snows right on the line anyways. I see lots of threats for frozen precipitation on the 12z today. Euro is rolling out now. Also a nice chilly day today with the temp at 47 currently.
  6. Met1985
    Yep I just wrote that. All inside 200 hours which is a big step.
  7. Met1985
    More big improvements on the 00z gfs all inside 200 hours. This is the most aggressive and the deepest I've seen the gfs take this first batch of cold air across our area. Again the gfs is finally catching onto this major blocking. The upslope action would be a foot plus in favored areas on this run.
  8. Met1985
    Yeah 1 inch of ice plus... I don't think so. Calling it right now.
  9. Met1985
    Yeah it is. A wild solution but I think it has something to do with that cold high pressure that literally spins down from Canada into the NE.
  10. Met1985
    00z gfs has a raging ice storm now for around the 15th.... Of course it does.
  11. Met1985
    Also looking at the whole 18z GEFS that is some insane cold air up in Canada. I mean bone chilling cold air up in Canada and the mechanisms are there to bring chunks of that down into the lower 48.
  12. Met1985
    Yeah this weather has been depressing at best but yes much needed rainfall for sure. Literally days and days of rainfall and clouds and fog. I enjoy this weather really but I'd rather see clouds and days and days of snow lol.
  13. Met1985
    Also another temp fail today. Only got up to 52 degrees. Was supposed to hit 62.
  14. Met1985
    The 18z gefs is by far the coldest we've seen with the ensembles finally catching onto the major blocking going on over the top and into AK. From about hour 168 through the rest of the run we stay below average. The models should still continue to adjust as we march towards next week.
  15. Met1985
    The 12z eps is one of the coldest yet. The eps looks great again from about hour 168 onwards. Some really cold air for sure. Today's trends are exactly what we want to see.
  16. Met1985
    12z Euro looked really good from about hour 168 onwards and you can see at the end of the run much colder air working down from Canada. Again im taking the mid to long range op runs with a grain of salt but the recent ensemble runs support this.
  17. Met1985
    We are finally seeing the effects of the blocking and the ridge bridge over the top. The 12z GEFS was the coldest run here in the region that we have seen. The cmc is very cold for us also and all this is in the 7 to 9 day range so we are for sure moving forward.
  18. Met1985
    Once again I see my highs getting pushed back 10 to 15 degrees from the NWS. I still have yet to break 60 this week with heavy fog and rain. We were supposed to be near 70 all week. Looks like we will be right near normal after today.
  19. Met1985
    My exact sentiments on the gfs. The OP is extremely volatile passed day 5 from run to run...
  20. Met1985
    Yeah you are right. I remember this summer is was record breaking high temps for areas like OK and surrounding regions. Then the heat wave come and left and no records or super records were broken...
  21. Met1985
    Yeah ive been reading a lot in the New England forum and several mets are saying that the new GFS is doing a horrendous job with the blocking and just basically the whole flow of things. I can tell it's taken a hit because there is absolutely no run to run continuity with the models since the upgrade. Why upgrade a model with poorer performance....
  22. Met1985
    The GFS run to run models have zero continuity. And it's moving high and low pressure hundreds of miles from run to run. Either the new upgrade to the gfs sucks that bad or this whole pattern change is a farce....
  23. Met1985
    The Euro weeklies look great from the 15th onwards... All good signs and lines up for our target date.
  24. Met1985
    Yeah and not only the OP but the ensembles are doing the same thing on drastic changes from run to run....
  25. Met1985
    From what im reading and researching is that the gfs is having a very tough time handling the forming block in the Northern hemisphere. No doubt the PNA region is crapping things up but I don't think we go full torch either...
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