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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    Also im going to say the op model runs can look great or horrible. Currently ride the ensembles until we get something in with 3 days.
  2. Met1985
    The NAO is negative. The AO is anonymously negative at negative 4 SD. The PNA is finally forecast to because neutral to positive and we look to gain a true negative EPO. That's a lot to freaking figure out on the models. But yeah we may ens up at 40 degrees and wet or dry. Can always happen.
  3. Met1985
    Lots of ways to fail and win. The models are struggling mightily with the blocking in my opinion because it is so deep.
  4. Met1985
  5. Met1985
    Eye candy
  6. Met1985
    The GEFS is the best run yet! That is a thing of beauty.
  7. Met1985
    More changes with the first initial push of cold air from the gfs... Color me skeptical but I don't think we have seen our last adjustments from the model. It doesn't look bad but there is room for deeper cold and a better push. I just about guarantee the ensembles will support a better push of cold air through the region.
  8. Met1985
    Yeah the gfs has gone to crap. We are within 5 days of a pattern change and it cannot get it's head out of the sand. Pathetic.
  9. Met1985
    GEFS says 5 days for our pattern change and much colder pattern for our area. The ensembles have been rock steady today.
  10. Met1985
    Wherher you call it trends or what the gfs spits out a different solution... This solution is a step towards the Euro but the gfs is absolutely freaking useless to me... The run to run wild swings from that damn model are crazy.
  11. Met1985
    Yeah once again I think the gfs is on an island all by itself. I could be wrong but im sticking to the Euro.
  12. Met1985
    Temps been dropping since this morning. Down to 44 already with continued thick clouds.
  13. Met1985
    Yeah I think there has been some serious damage done to the model since this upgrade. It's behaving erratic and there is no continuity from run to run. To me it's the worst model we have currently.
  14. Met1985
    This is like a broken record but again the GEFS does not agree with the OP. It blasts the front through here and the majority of us get cold.
  15. Met1985
    Euro and eps look good. Continued cold coming in with ensemble support.
  16. Met1985
    I've actually read that this new upgrade to the gfs has worse verification scores than the previous gfs version... I know this is a major shift in the hemispherical weather pattern but there has been very little continuity this week with the gfs....
  17. Met1985
    Once again the gfs own ensembles do not agree with the op. This is a running trend over several days... The GEFS blows the cold front through the region once again and looks much better than the OP.
  18. Met1985
    What sight do you use for the Canadian?
  19. Met1985
    This is not the same gfs especially after the upgrade.
  20. Met1985
    Gfs says what plus pna and negative EPO. dumps some bone chilling cold all in the east and northern plains while we bask in the SER.
  21. Met1985
    I doubt this happens this way but most get a few inches...
  22. Met1985
    Good Lord at the cold air coming down from Canada in the northern plains.
  23. Met1985
    00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....
  24. Met1985
    Also a nice cool evening with a temp of 43 already with thick fog. I might be weird but I enjoy this weather at this time of the year. It's kept things cool and damp and something about the Christmas lights shinning through thick fog that looks like a landing strip for Santa lol.
  25. Met1985
    The 18z ensembles still brings the cold front blasting through the area. Looks nothing like the OP. Looks good to me still. In general the GEFS has been pretty rock steady other than a few runs here and there...
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