Met1985

Ice, ice baby! Haywood-Transylvania- Including the city of Waynesville 339 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. A light glaze is expected at elevations above 3500 feet. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet over the Balsam Mountains in Haywood and Transylvania Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

Yeah a big jump in snowfall on this side of the mountain for sure. Hopefully a last minute trend towards recognizing more moisture behind the front.

The NAM looked much better this morning especially for the southern mountains with the expanse of snow and snowfall numbers. The NAM 3K followed suit with upping totals and being a but more expansive on the snowfall. Even giving the airport at least a trace this run.

Euro is very dry and warmer.

NAM looks just like the euro in my opinion.

Also just a bit of fun but even with the lack of snow possibly this is a historic event and it will be a memorable event. To see temperatures this cold with windchills that we are going to see and the dramatic temperature drop is something we rarely see here. This is a rare event especially in December. Possible record breaking pressure in Montana. Make no mistake about the shear size of this event across the country. We will have wind chill warnings and high wind advisories and high wind warnings also. If you by chance you see a changeover to snow then you'll likely see some brief blizzard conditions locally...

Yeah the changeover will not be gradually. It's going to turnaround on a dime.

I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains. Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.

To me it is clear the euro is drying up ever so slightly over the past 3 to 4 runs....

Euro is abysmal on the snow chances. The euro keeps the low wrapped up much further north than the gfs. And with the verification scores this could be the right solution.

Yeah yall will flirt with single digits. At this moment im thinking one of us will make it to at least negative 5 to negative 10 here in the mountains especially if you have some snow on the ground.

Easy on the ho down to Hickory this is a kid friendly site lol.

Yes very very similar except this cold blast is way more potent and has some staying power.

I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero.

Ill tell you one thing the closer we get to the cold front the colder the models are getting. Should be several people below zero Friday night into Saturday morning. Bone chilling cold.

12z gfs still looks to give most some flakes. The old rain changing to snow routine as temps comes crashing down....

You can see the moisture working in from the south over the mountains. Could squeeze out some flakes this after. Most all the models did not have this coming through.

06z gfs was a bit better this morning with regards of snowfall for Friday. Even Asheville gets 2 inches out of this run. Probably 6 plus along the border. Cold front blasts through and temps drop like a rock.

Yep I believe it!

The gfs is even more extreme. Lets take a look. Again we will use the Asheville airport. At hour 93 they are at 42 degrees. Hour 96 down to 14! Hour 99 at 8 degrees. That really shows the rapid drop but the euro is actually colder than the gfs for us. Again just a bit of fun with the models.

Take Asheville at hour 90 they are at 43, hour 96 at 23 degrees, at hour 102 at 17 degrees, hour 108 at 10 degrees. Hour 114 at 6 degrees. This is from today's euro run. You know a lot of us are 10 to 15 degrees colder than the Asheville airport....

Also current temp is a cool 30 degrees. The front that's going to blow through here means business. We will see some huge temp drops in a very short period. If you have outdoor animals bring them in or get some very thick bedding out of the wind for them. We will likely see temps below zero. Make sure your car is winterized and your pipes are insulated because this cold means business. Take care of things early this week before the weather goes to crap.

Well might as well have some fun with the short range models. The 21z SREF plums are giving our regional anywhere from a trace to 1 inch of snow from this southern slider. For what it's worth. Also the 3k NAM is trying to drum up some flakes for the southern mountains. Also todays euro run finally got on board with the idea of some very light snow for the southern mountains today for the first time in days. Imagine that it just pops up with snow within 24 hours.... Crazy.

All kinds of energy on the euro today. Anything can still happen at the last minute with one of these waves.

Disclaimer this whole post is my opinion and I hope no one takes offense... Oh I understand the frustration but our climate is and has changed. Im not getting into the whole global warming but the numbers are there, the lack of snowfall is there. I think there are a lot of variables at play and really we are in uncharted territory when it comes to our current climate. Not being pessimistic but just stating things are different and we have to be knowledgeable of those differences in todays time. Also I think the models are sh!t currently. Recently the cmc has been scoring way higher than the gfs and the euro in the long to mid range. Gfs has gone by the way side and the euro is not what it used to be. So that makes things extremely difficult because you really don't have a solid all around go to model currently all in my personal opinion though.