Met1985

Yeah that will be crazy. Not that I want those temps. That's too dang cold. Not too mention the windchills.

Surprisingly im already down to 34 under clear skies. Also reading from the TN forum there seems to be a bit of a surplus in moisture with this front and the orientation is a bit better with the front currently. There are reports of 20 degree temp drops in 1 hour also. This is some serious stuff fellas.

Wow that is impressive.

Nice! That's what im talking about.

The 18z NAM gets Asheville down to negative 2 Saturday morning. Just think of what the mountain areas will be like say around 3k feet....

The 18z NAM is pretty meh but the NAM 4k still looks really good for the most favorable areas.

Yep that's exactly what im thinking.

Yeah it looks really good for some of the favored areas. You'll probably do better than me because it is coming in more westerly.

The latest hrrr was a nice hit for the mountains. The euro is back to showing paltry numbers for everyone. This will be fascinating to see evolve out in real time as in actual air temperatures and precipitation. The euro has been warmer than every other model and drier than every other model....

Yeah the modeling has been really behind on this arctic front and with the moisture behind this front also. I think we see some very impressive high lows and lows this weekend.

Absolutely! No two ways around this arctic blast being historical. Just look at the NWS map of all the advisors, watches, and warnings across a large portion of the country.

I absolutely agree with all the above. We are kind of sitting similar to you but I think this is such a dynamic complex system that just about all the models are having a tough time with this thing.

Yeah that's crazy but not out of the realm with this extremely dense push of arctic air.

Yes I've seen were the models have been severely behind on modeling the arctic front.

We've not seen an airmass like this for nearly a decade and we are only in December...

Yeah you can look back in the TN forum from yesterday were spots in Wyoming and Montana dropped 30 degrees in 3 minutes...

This arctic blast absolutely means business. This one is impressive for sure.

The NAM is a bit better on some snow, the hrrr is meh, and the NAM 3K brings the goods to the high elevation spots which is a positive change.

Euro upped totally, gfs looks decent. I think we all see some flakes but the real news maker is the cold and wind that is going to blow through here tomorrow morning.

NAM is paltry on the snow again...

A big improvement on the euro across the border counties. After several runs of drying up the moisture this run brings back some. Maybe we are finally seeing a middle ground with the models.

Good Lord that's crazy.

Well to me the gfs took a big step towards the euro. There is a sharp gratient on the snow line right along the border counties. Gfs still very very cold. Might have warmed up a degree or two but still very cold.

And this is exactly what I was talking about last night. This watch is from Andrews south. Today or tomorrow the rest of the mountains will be issued something similar. ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero in lower elevations, and as low as 25 below zero in higher elevations. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA- Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford- Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and/or ice accumulations from freezing rain of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.