Met1985

Great runs by the cmc and the gfs on the 12z suites. Steady she goes.

Overnight suites still look very good. The euro was much more robust with the northern vort coming down so the totals were upped a good bit more and much more colder. We are 4 days out and this is exactly what we want to see from the euro. The cmc still looks like a nice hit for the mountains. The gfs still looks good. Back off of totals a bit but still a strong signal there and that's about all you can ask for from that model. Also all three of the big three ensembles look great for a pattern change around the 20th. The eps and cmc looks great. The gfs is getting there but we know it's a broken model currently....

Ill be short and sweet. 00z gfs looks great for the border counties still. Everyone have a wonderful night.

Could not have put it any better. My exact thoughts about this year so far. Besides minimal snow I give this cold season a B so far because of the colder Fall and extreme temps we just had. Very well put.

Thank you! The bipolar that is on here currently is amazing.... This fits in line with a lot of the signals that we are seeing in the long range. From all three of the major model ensembles. The dang eps looks fantastic in the long range.

No not at all but there is a lot of meltdowns this weekend and people canceling winter already when we are just in the first of January. Seems like we go through this same song and dance every damn year even though most people's average snowfall is minimal.

The eps has had this way before the GEFS. The CMC ensembles have had this also before the GEFS.

Yeah the trough sharpening really helped up totals.

Yeah I spoke too soon. My fault.

Yep spoke too soon. My bad. This is a dang great run for the border counties. Totals are upped a bit more than the 12z. With the trough sharpening more and digging it throws more moisture right into the mountains for about 30 plus hours. A great look from the gfs for us. I really hope we get hammered.

May have spoken too soon but still an odd solution. The main low swings up right over the top of us into Canada and just stalls out or gets absorbed into the energy coming down from the north.

Really weird solution with the gfs. This is going to cut our totals way back for NW flow snow.

This run of the 18z is going to be awful. It cuts the first storm way early.

Heck I hope we get both.

I mean I understand people's frustration but it's January the 8th and people are acting like it's the end of the damn world. It's freaking weather. If you cannot keep your shit together then don't post....

Also looking at the 12z eps it looks damn good right after the 20th. The eps has been showing this for several runs so hopefully we can see this change come to fruition. Cmc ensembles are looking great as well and the slow as hell gefs is latching onto the idea.

Bye bye spring especially for us.

For sure!

12z euro looks great for upslope snow. This will be a great trajectory from the NW with plenty of cold air flooding in behind the low coming in.

Yeah this has turned more into a backside upslope snow more than anything. I know the border counties will be excited to see a nice 3 to 6 plus inches at this point in the season. But we might see some corrections to the south or further to the east... Hey at least we are tracking something.

The 12z gfs looks great for the border counties. This is all going to be a backside storm now. The low runs up into Ohio and just kind of stalls for a bit allowing lots of energy to move through on the trough right into the mountains. This is not going to be a synoptic storm unless something drastic changes which I don't see happening. This looks like the best setup for upslope snow we've seen this season.

The low from the west coast wave travels from TN to Ohio so everything in front of the low is rainfall for everyone. Then the other piece of energy rotates down to crank up the flow snow. This looks really good for the border counties but don't worry it'll change tomorrow morning...

Instead of a bowling ball it's like a legitimate trough digging down with the piece of energy.

This is a weird solution. The wave kind of just stays open across the whole country but then there is a potent piece of energy from the north that drops down behind the wave...

Im going to go through the run just for posterity sake but im trashing this run....