Met1985

Yeah we've seen this song and dance a lot.

Yeah this run is much better than the overnight runs in my opinion.

The gfs is the only model this morning that looks decent for upslope snow. The euro is paltry and the NAM has back off it's totals. Also once we get this cold front around the 27th the whole country goes zonal and we end up warming right back up.

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe- Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 405 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Areas of sleet and freezing rain expected. Total sleet accumulations of up to a half inch and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

Looks like it some ice tomorrow for the favored CAD regions. Buncombe- Including the cities of Asheville, Black Mountain, and Candler 421 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...High elevations of Buncombe County around the Black Mountains. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday.

Yeah when a track like this upcoming weekend brings rain to all of us you know it's a crap pattern. Yep.

Yeah the pattern change I just don't see at this point. My opinion is we don't see a true pattern change until March then that will screw up Spring. This is just a repeating pattern from September in my opinion. Not bad but not great.

Yeah the so called pattern change is not going to come to fruition until probably March.... There has been a recurring theme that has repeated since September. And that is exactly what we are looking at. At this point the only way we get a synoptic storm is threading the needle on a storm because we are getting plenty of moisture in here.

Truthfully im not impressed with the upcoming pattern. Everything cuts then get have a cold front then back to warmth because majority of the cold air is in the Rockies. Im just about done with January at this point. Things have not trended well.

That will not affect our weather until February. Primarily mid to Late February and there is no guarantee that it affects us in the positive.

Another really good run by the EPS. Cold is near by with a damn active storm track. That's about all you can ask for at this juncture.

The 12z gfs has a ton of potential and still showing some mighty cold air coming in.

The 12z gfs changed again.... Nothing new but the 12z gefs looks really good in the medium to long range. It would put us with at least chances of winter weather.

This is a cold look on the euro. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The overnight euro is bringing more of an upslope flow similar to what we just saw. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

This is strictly showing what we could be looking at for this pattern change. We are working towards a different hemispheric setup that is roughly only 3 to 4 days away from starting. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Something the gfs is spitting out. To me this is a good signal at this range. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The euro and eps look great in the mid to long range and the euro weeklies look great also heading into and through February.

Dang man crazy how the inversion just carried tight through the day.

Big fail in temps today. Current temp is 38 and our high was only 40 today.

Yeah it is very rare. More so lately but there are so many variables I really cannot put my finger on it. Im optimistic we see some type of synoptic storm this winter eventually to where everyone can cash in.

Also a few things. The gfs and gefs have switched from torch to getting some really cold air into the continent. Also Canada becomes an icebox which is great for us for our cold source. Also the euro and eps continue to look good. A bit of kicking the pattern down the road but im afraid the pac will not settle down until Spring...

Obviously we aren't in a great pattern now and we still managed to see snow accumulations from 1 inch all the way up to 2 feet. Really it only takes a few storms to make our average around here and the foothills. Hopefully we get a synoptic storm but this pattern currently is more conducive for upslope flow snow.

Great thoughts this morning Carver..I absolutely agree great trends over the past 24 hours.

Yeah Carver, John, and Holston do a great job over there. I definitely check them out daily.