gamecockinupstateSC

NW trend on GFS and Euro AI

The orientation of the tilt change is evident on the GFS.

FV3 lower levels are too dry. Does not amount to much, unfortunately. We can put a fork in this one, it appears. Ugh. Tracking the 10th system and now this for 15 minutes of flakes and cloudy skies Tuesday just hurts more because of the sustained cold pattern. This is a kick to the nuts.

"I actually think EPS trended much better, but what do I know" It appears it did.

Increase here inland and in the GOM.

CAE discussion and ATL discussion very strong cold front arrives late Sunday as the lingeringsurface low lifts northeast.- Temps 15-25 degrees below average expected Monday through Thursday.- Wintry precip chances continue for mid-week, but confidenceremains low.The aforementioned surface low will lift northeast Sunday, followedby the long discussed cold front. So there will not likely bemuch of a diurnal swing Sunday as strong advection arrivesduring the day. For Monday and Tuesday, the broad trough of theArctic airmass will settle into the central and eastern US. ECand NAEFS are in excellent agreement over the general nature ofthe initial airmass with highly anomalous cold, but not recordsetting; temps 15-25 degrees below average yield highs in the~30`s or low 40`s, along with overnight lows in the teens or low20`. EC EFI continues to show EFI values between 0.9 and 0.95Monday and Tuesday, but SoT is very low; a classic highconfidence in well below average, but not extreme temps, signal.Regardless, the LREF output suggests we will approach or exceedCold Weather Advisory criteria at some point next week, so stayaware of that potential new product issuance. Frozen pipes andrelated impacts are becoming more likely during the mid- weekperiod as high temps will only make it above freezing for a fewhours each day.Late Tuesday and into Wednesday is when the wintry precip potentialstarts to enter the picture. Based on the last handful of guidancesuites, there is only a little more clarity on the possibility ofwinter weather next week. Based on extent of the cold airmass andassociated surface high pressure, a suppressed low tracksolution looks more and more likely with any wintry precipchances actually increasing the further south you go in theMidlands and CSRA. GEFS, and ECE to a lesser extent, havetrended towards this solution over the past several runs withprobabilities of 1" of snow in the central and northernMidlands decreasing notably as the surface high settles into theTN Valley. The GEFS and deterministic GFS remain the mostsuppressed, with little-no precip into the forecast area. TheCanadian and at its ensemble are the other end of the spectrum,with a northern GoM oriented storm track and significantly moremoisture overrun into eastern GA and SC; the EC and itsensemble looks to be directly in the middle of these twosolutions over the last fews suites. The key feature of theforecast is how the low level cold air and surface high pressureis handled and how far southeast it can reach. How this highpressure progresses is a result of extremely strong confluencealong the western flank of the trough main trough. And how thisconfluence progresses is a result of a cutoff low in the Pacificand its interaction with the main trough. A faster phase ofthis cutoff drags the surface high further west, and a slowerphase causes the opposite. Unfortunately with chaotic nature ofcutoffs sitting under ridge axes, it will take several more daysto get consistent model guidance on this event. But generally,the GFS-EC solution of a slower decay of the cutoff-ridgepattern in the Pacific is more likely given typical model biasesin blocking patterns.Overall, the forecast hinges on a notorious synoptic scaleinteraction. But beyond that the general pattern is favorablewith a suppressed GoM storm track solution looking likely.Whether that yields snow- wintry precip into the Midlands andCSRA is highly uncertain at this time. ATL Early next week, the forecast area becomes situated near the base ofa very broad 500mb trough. At the surface, latest global ensemblesare painting a strong arctic surface high sliding south into thenorth-central CONUS by early next week. Energy rotating through thebase of the broad trough will act to reinforce the colder air whichlooks to stick around through at least mid week next week. At thetime of this writing, we`re looking at temperatures Monday andTuesday 20 to 25 degrees below normal! Early morning temperaturesMonday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the teens to low 20sand forecast daytime temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid30s. Many locations (a line north of LaGrange to Griffin to Athens)will struggle to rise above freezing. Breezy winds will not help thesituation at all keeping wind chills (aka the `feels like`temperature) in the teens to single digit values Monday throughWednesday. We are in the midst of winter and now is the time to prepfor the cold! Pipes, plants, pets and people!Finally, the thing on everyone`s mind -- will another winter stormimpact portions of North and Central Georgia? Right now a few thingswe can say...-Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is still highlyinconsistent with the bulk of the difference in outcomes dependingon the 500mb pattern. As we know here in the south, that placementof upper level features as well as moisture can make or break awinter wx forecast and is really what leads to the difficultiessurrounding it.-Regardless of winter precip -- VERY cold and frigid temperaturesare highly likely next week. Please prepare now.The pieces of this potential winter weather puzzle will continue tocome together in the coming days. So stay tuned for detailsincluding exactly what, where, and how much...

We keep getting different looks but in the end still have a signal and get snow into parts of GA, SC, and NC. Run after run consistency. I know we all want a Big Dog....but some of us still didn't have the ground covered on the 10th. I would gladly take this. Of course, it would be nice to get that Big Dog!

Warmer upper levels? Colder?

Icon starting off new run with a good start and possibly two events back to back.

You mean everyone wearing that Ugly Orange.