NC_hailstorm

41.6 here at a little past 1 pm,cold and damp.

Cold front has arrived here after a high of 79.9,couple sprinkles and a wind shift out of the WNW.Should get a nice cooldown this evening.

Looks like the GFS and Euro are going for a fairly strong CAD around day 6/7.Seeing a 1030-1040 HP in southeast Canada.

Euro and GFS both show a nice cool down around day 6/7 with a fairly strong cold front. Seeing the 564 dm pressing into parts of NC,impressive for late September.

Seeing some low/mid 50's dew point after Ida passes by on day 5/6 on the GFS/Euro today. Relief is in sight.

3.49'' for the week so far.

2.44'' for the week so far,might get a little more with another rain band about to cross.

97.9 so far,ticking back slightly now but its warm today. .32'' for the month on rain,cells come very close though within a mile or two lately but that's it.

12Z runs of the Euro,Ukie,and Canadian all have heavy rain in Western/west central NC.GFS still the only holdout.

12Z Euro looks similar to the Ukie in my opinion.

Looks like the 0z Euro still has a swath of heavy rain but more towards the west this run. 12z Ukie had good precip up in most of NC,GFS doesn't have much as the others.Waiting on the 12z Euro.

Euro is putting down some big totals in western/central NC,bout 6''-12'' of rain on day 6/7. GFS/Ukie have rain but nothing that big.

Light/Moderate snow here solid dusting ,cars covered.Roads still look wet only. 32.2

Mostly snow here,could be a touch of rain though.Sticking on cars. 33.4

The GOAT of all runs lol.

Me too.

Snow showers here 43.3

Yep cotton balls flying around,Dusting here.

Been there several times.Still rain/snow mix. 33.4

33.4 rain/snow mix can't get a complete changeover yet.

Snow here,large flakes. 34.1

Clouds rolled in fast after a clear morning,mostly cloudy and 39.6 26.4 for a low.

Good grief that 18zHRRR is impressive.Still wasn't done at 48 hours.

Have been noticing the Euro forecast is ever so slightly trying to pull this MJO into phase 1 over the last 5 or so days.Even better look if that happened so things still on schedule. Carry on.

Funny how no model or any forecaster saw any of the impressive blocking so far,NOBODY but the solar signals screamed blocking.It is fighting a healthy La Nina so we do have a battle going on right now. About to exit the latest solar cycle and given the usual 10 day lag(give or take a few days)things should improve with tropical forcing and MJO help.This latest cycle also should finish off the PV for a SSW soon,Euro is trying to push into phase 2 MJO which is usually a cold look for the east around 10-12 days.AO still looks to stay quite negative as does NAO so as long as that blocking shows up you are still in the game. Would like to see that PV enter the troposphere by Jan.25th or so on our side of the continent,another cycle around then would most likely pull it west if it entered later. I'm not throwing in the towel yet I'll wait a while.Just my opinion.