NC_hailstorm

Another big phaser day 5-6,Euro and Canadian look identical.

Agree it looks like the 6-8'' snow/sleet with a raging sleet storm at some point with freezing rain to end it in my area.Usually west of I 85 and north of HWY 73 around here locally is the dividing line,seen it many times. Just my opinion.

The monster is lurking,told ya.

18'' for me lol

Bombs away lol.

Should get a nice cold week here with lows well below or around freezing in most locations.Every flake has a chance to stick. Carry on.

Euro ALMOST phases that Baja low at 192,maybe a partial one.Still get 2 nice storms but that's the monster if it phases. Playing with dynamite lol.

January temps so far,first couple days were extremely warm. AVL +2.1 CLT +6.7 GSP +4.3 HKY +5.3 GSO +5.3 RDU +5.5 FAY +5.8 CAE +5.4

GFS phases the two streams as did the Canadian did yesterday,then you get the monster.

Well I only get 20'' this run,Triad lollipops around 30''.Might wanna save this one too lol.

I think the monster showed up again today,GFS 12z 252-264 hour lol

Positive AAM is better for higher latitude blocking. Blocking is more prevelant during El Ninos (+AAM) rather than La Ninas (-AAM) during the winter time and this is related to the location of tropical forcing. Key word here is location of the tropical forcing (MJO)If this is good blocking can still be achieved meaning you want p8,p1.p2,sometimes p7 if in January.Plus the SOI is hinting more El Ninoish lately (-7.63 today) The AAM weakened but has leveled off and is ticking back upwards and is still plenty positive.I have my own opinion what drives this but I think it can stay positive most of the month.It may dip again after Jan 16-18th but not drop to negative,patterns often get stuck in low solar as well. Just my opinion.

The UKMET has something cooking on day 6,snow breaking out over western NC. Looks like the Jan2nd monster showed up on the 240 Canadian also today.

I think the January 2nd monster made another appearance tonight(hour 270, GFS18Z )Off the coast but he's still alive.

Well the GFS in fantasy land,la la land(hour 360) has the monster that beats them all today.Might wanna save that one see some 30'' to 40'' totals.

Watch that shortwave on the west coast,rockies,plains around day 4/5.if that can dig a bit more could be a big hit its going to run right into that cold dome pressing down. Carry on.

Solar wind the last 4 days 402-682 511-694 507-641 436-597 Strongest levels since very early November,should get a few more active days(Dec.27th-30th)coming.Low solar usually leads to a sluggish jet stream,things get bogged down,patterns get stuck.This might be enough to kick things along,we'll see plus phase 7 MJO is usually cold in the east but that -PNA is a beast.The +AAM might weaken but you need something to kickstart a flip. Just my opinion.

Just looking at the MJO,phase 7 in December is typically warm in the east but phase 7 in January turns colder shown here. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html But you're dealing with a strong,dug in, -PNA this time and like i said before the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do.

All I know is that -PNA is strong,deep,and negative.It's going to take quite a jolt to dislodge that feature to get to a better pattern.We'll see.

+AAM is the highest today since mid July readings.Have my own opinion what drives this though. Feburary was a big +AAM month,central/eastern US was very cold. May was another +AAM month,another cold central/eastern US July was another +AAM month,another below normal temps for central/eastern US Carry on.

Pattern change is probably more believe able considering the MJO forecasts moving into p7 and p8 in 10-14 days.Also the AAM is forecasted to rise and I believe it will till the end of the month.But the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do so just observe.

Sorta cold today,high 45.1 low 27.7,overcast all day.

Next 7 days or so look quiet,GFS and Euro both bringing down an arctic front around day 8/9.Euro runs a big storm up the front,GFS just a frontal passage but the air behind looks plenty cold. Afterwards you're just watching for shortwaves to interact with the cold air,both models have something but impossible to pin down this far out.Also when I see the 582-585dm pushing all the way up into Oregon/Washington I start watching. Eyes open.

Fairly strong shortwave in Manitoba diving SSE around day 6,probably needs it to dig more west to have a shot but still fun to watch.It's not impossible to get a dusting/inch,or a rain/snow mix in late November but looks like a cold shot even without a storm.

29.8 this morning