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NC_hailstorm

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Everything posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. NC_hailstorm
    Now you're cookin with hot grease lol,18z tonight full phase.
  2. NC_hailstorm
    A phase or a partial at 162 on the 18z GFS,,this can get a little better with some tweaks.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    Something like this....12z AI
  4. NC_hailstorm
    Euro has to kick that Baja low a little further east or the shortwave dropping down has to tick west at day 8/9.Either might work but if you get both well....woof.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    The big dog is barking this morning.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    A 594 dm death ridge in California and a 486 dm polar vortex in far southeast Canada at the end of the run.And neither seems to be giving ground lol.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    Yep that's a big dog.
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Crazy
  9. NC_hailstorm
    Tonight's Euro run might beat anything I've ever seen,492 polar vortex into N.Carolina good grief.That's a high in the single digits? Might save that one.
  10. NC_hailstorm
    Euro and the Canadian are further east with the trough at day 7 while the GFS,ICON,and UK are further west. Somewhere in the middle might work but a tick west would be better to give these shortwaves more room to dig.
  11. NC_hailstorm
    That ridging out west is strong and persistent,I even seen a few frames hitting 591dm that's close to death ridge stuff you see in the summertime.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    Anyways the 18z GFS says Merry Christmas,brings the big dog and puts everyone in the freezer late in the run.
  13. NC_hailstorm
    GFS is finally getting a clue and progressing things,no digging and dumping in the west this run.
  14. NC_hailstorm
    GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    Euro brings the big dog late in the run,good grief.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    There's also the 11 year solar lag response for NAO,AO.Also affects the Aleutian Low Doesn't guarantee cold other things have to be included as QBO,ENSO,and MJO and where they are. On average for eastern/central N America Lag 0 year-warm Lag 1 year -warm Lag 2 year -warm Lag 3 year warm Lag 4 year- cold (here now) Lag 5 year- cold Lag 6 year-cold Lag 7 year -cold Lag 8 year-cold Lag 9 year- neutral to cold Lag 10 year-warm Lag 11 year -warm
  17. NC_hailstorm
    Seen that,and the Euro is sorta honking too but not as big .Makes sense MJO coming into phase 8 around the new year.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    The PNA is very positive,AO is negative let's see what happens.
  19. NC_hailstorm
    Good grief a 972 low on the Canadian.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    Don't know if it's right but a hit on the Icon tonight.......
  21. NC_hailstorm
    Canadian might be a hit for western NC,foothills,western piedmont. Heck of a storm off the coast.
  22. NC_hailstorm
    Just from what I'm seeing at 144,the UKMET,ICON,and Canadian have more shortwave energy further north in CO,OK.and northern TX. Euro a tick south of there,GFS way way south of there. Oh and the GFS is scoring very poorly lately,way behind the other three. NOAA/NWS Headline Scores: ACC 31 Days
  23. NC_hailstorm
    Good news I have the S word in the forecast now Sunday Snow before 10am, then rain. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
  24. NC_hailstorm
    Yep that wacky 0z GFS is dropping that PV into the USA late in the run.
  25. NC_hailstorm
    Think that was the 1st Euro run that dropped the polar vortex into the USA,GFS has already had a few.
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