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NC_hailstorm

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Everything posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. NC_hailstorm
    The Euro and Ukie both have something day 5 in the eastern gulf.The track is still in question but there could be some heavy rain especially on the eastern side of this crawling slowly north somewhere. Today's total on the Euro day 10
  2. NC_hailstorm
    Looks like we'll get some fairly potent MCS action over the next 24 hours.The HRRR has the first arriving overnight with two more crossing Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds the big issue most likely,they are really flying moving SE.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    5 day totals on the Euro today.
  4. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie bringing it on today's run,6 day totals.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    Seasonal forecasts on the Euro for the summer,2m temps and Heights for the next 3 months.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    Euro continues to ramp up the precip,GFS similar.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    Lower heights/trof return tomorrow,death ridge being weakened and pushed back out.Better rain chances begin around day 6 on the Euro,GFS is similar.
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Pretty map today.
  9. NC_hailstorm
    Looks like this big cutter coming through this weekend will flip the pattern finally and put the low heights,PV on our side of the hemisphere. MJO has a good chance running out to 3/8 or 3/9 considering this sun rotation is coming much,much weaker than the previous one,first 10 days or so in March are in play IMO.
  10. NC_hailstorm
    All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt. Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes. Just my opinion.
  11. NC_hailstorm
    Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast.
  13. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie has that piece of energy(1009 low)in Alberta at day 6,same thing the GFS and CMC show diving south/southeast to the gulf later on. Bout the only thing to watch at the moment.
  14. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie moved north from 0z and is more amped at 999 in S.central Alabama.Heights behind it and northeast of it are a bit lower though. That looks like a good hit for E.Tennessee and Ky if I had to guess,0z Euro had a 996 coming right through CLT at day 7.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    Should start to see some stronger high pressures coming down if the SSW was strong and persistent. They'll filter down from the strat to the troposphere,Ukie has a 1039 coming into SE Canada at day 6.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    Check out the heights crash on the Ukie. Has the 582dm line on the NC/SC border at day 2,then south of Cuba and approaching Jamaica at day 6.That line usually hangs around south/central Florida in a typical winter.
  17. NC_hailstorm
    The Euro and Ukie look close at day 6 with a decent trough/lower heights,that looks like phase 7-8 mjo signal starting to arrive. Euro has a follow up trough at day 8/9 with lower heights. Carry on with the moaning and complaining.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    Anyways at first glance on the Euro it looks like the strongest/coldest piece of the PV goes into Scandinavia at day 6.North America gets a smaller piece in Eastern Canada somewhere with decent blocking up over the top. First guess and subject to change on the SSW talk.
  19. NC_hailstorm
    Very poor scoring the last 5 or 6 days.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    All the models are scoring very poorly the last 5 days,anything 5 days and beyond should not be trusted at all until things shake out.
  21. NC_hailstorm
    Hit on the Euro today day 9/10
  22. NC_hailstorm
    Might wanna save this,850mb at 10 AM
  23. NC_hailstorm
    Right now I'd say the Euro and the FV3 look pretty close with the cutoff line somewhere along highway 73 in the southern piedmont of NC. Sleet will probably mix in everywhere time to time with warm pockets coming through but more south of there. Carry on.
  24. NC_hailstorm
    The FV3 has been running pretty well lately by the verification scores so we'll see.
  25. NC_hailstorm
    Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42. It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now.
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