ct_yankee

Also for tomorrow SNE tor risk has been upgraded:

One big hatched area now... That's a huge area for a 15% hatched tor risk. .

This is the way.

Been watching this one for a few days, the GFS has been relatively consistent with a potential severe event... In fact I almost asked about Saturday in the other thread, but thankfully controlled that impulse. I mean sure the numbers look good, at the moment - or at least they still did last night when I looked at it in detail. But it's Southern New England (sigh), and I've learned the hard way never to get my hopes up. But yeah, by all means lets start a thread and watch what happens. It couldn't hurt... Could it?

Indeed there were... Woke me right the (expletive deleted) up instantly, can tell you that. Every now and then we seem to get these morning surprises, and they are often unsually strong, especially considering the general lack of instability and this hour of the day.... Very loud and annoying if one is still in bed.

Nice isolated storm to my west near Monroe CT, starting to look interesting... If it continues to improve may have to go have a look, despite the inevitable traffic... Been very few opportunities to chase locally this summer. Pretty much none, in fact.

I have personally seen storms that must have approached that out west (Kansas, Nebraska, etc), with certainly more then 7 discharges/sec, sometimes the whole updraft is alive with multiple constant lightnings... But not all are CGs, its mostly intracloud, 7 CGs/sec is pushing it, and in any event you need really good ML lapse rates for that kind of thing and we never ever get that here. But I suspect its possible elsewhere.

Except for the mod risk, that description is almost generic for us... Par for the course.

Definitely some breaks in the clouds behind that stuff in the sound, at least there are here in HVN. Hints of blue sky... Every little hole in the cloud cover can make a difference on a day like today.

Wow that guy was incredibly lucky the tornado was relatively weak, it basically went right over him! If you see a tornado that is obviously coming right for you when you're in your car, probably a good idea to try to get out of the way. That could have gone so much worse.

Man, I was right in Branford where the tornado supposedly was. I was at the Stop and Shop at exit 56, watching the sky. I saw some very cool lightning, a few darkish looking clouds, and absolutely no sign of any tornado. No high winds, no lowerings, nothing. I was right there, and saw essentially nothing. Unbelievable. Not doubting it happened, mind you, just disgusted that I could be so close and completely miss everything. I mean I just happened to be in almost the perfect spot pretty much by chance, and stil... I got Nada. Honestly, I didn't even suspect any severe actually happened in the area until I got home and read this thread. (sigh...)

New MD Mesoscale Discussion 1679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Areas affected...far northern New Jersey...southern New York...Long Island...and far southern New England Concerning...Tornado Watch 484... Valid 020320Z - 020445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 484 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently moving across Long Island and southern New England will continue to pose a risk of strong thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes. A new watch downstream of Tornado Watch #484 will be issued. DISCUSSION...The remnant low-level circulation of post-tropical cyclone Ida continues to move northeast toward the greater New York City area. The low-level wind field continues to advect a very warm, moist air northward into southern New England as a warm front slowly lifts north across Long Island. Time-evolution VAD winds from Upton, NY, (KOKX) suggests that the warm front is very near or just north of the radar. Additionally, the time evolution of KOKX's VAD winds indicates a strengthening wind field that veers with height, leading to 0-1 kilometer SRH in excess of 800 m2/s2. As thunderstorms continue to move east from northern New Jersey/southern New York, across Long Island and southern New England, they will interact with this extremely favorable kinematic environment. The result is a continued potential for a couple of tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds along and south of the warm front. The most appreciable tornado risk will be in the vicinity of this lifting warm front, but how far north it lifts before being overtaken by the approaching thunderstorms is uncertain. Portions o coastal and near-coastal areas downstream from Tornado Watch #484 across southern New England will need a new tornado watch. ..Marsh.. 09/02/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

So would one expect to see a TDS with a strong tornadic waterspout? Not really any debris as such, just water, so I would guess maybe not... Anyone know?

Man that velocity sig in the sound is nuts. Its more than just a meso, although it no doubt contains one... But I'll be damned if I know what it actually is or represents, it goes all the way across the sound...

Absolutely crazy BLAM! of thunder a minute ago in HVN, was like a cannon shot or explosive, did not think it was thunder at first...

Considering mesoanalysis is showing close to zero CAPE, those are some pretty good looking cells developing in S. CT...

Yeah was really only considering CT, where the conditions seem to still be somewhat conducive, but you're right, nothing further is expected.

Yeah it all looks pretty meh, but... The atmosphere south of the front is still surprisingly juicy and apparently getting slightly more so with time. For that matter the front itself is seemingly being held back or even actively pushed north in places by the strong LLJ. It would be rather ironic if DIT's predictions of an active severe night come to pass after all. Not that I expect that, but given current mesoanalysis one couldn't completely rule it out either...

Congrats. Watching that from a distance from here in Bradford. Not nearly as organized as the one up here yesterday, but yeah its a thunderstorm, I'm sure you'll take it...

Currently observing a beautiful little supercell passing just north of Bradford VT where I am staying. Got some decent cellphone video of the storm structure with the setting sun behind it, really nice for New England. Am not at home so may be difficult to edit and post any vid caps right now, but nice, really nice, and kinda unexpected. Some cool CGs with the cell, one of which I have video of. Very pleased!

"line just died when it hit New Haven" Boy am I used to that! I was just getting ready to drive to VT from HVN as that storm matured over Hamden, looked really nice, lots of staccato thunder... But I knew what would likely happen, and I just drove away from it. Didn't even look at what happened to it until now. Yeah, went as expected, although nice that Hamden got that hail. Agree about the flags today. On to the next one, indeed. Edit: its frickin cold up here in VT!

Well, those storms did die before they got to me, but then a small cell blew up right on top of the city, with plenty of very close lightning hits... I'll take it.

Lightning ramped way down... Crap, it's probably gonna die before it gets to me. So close, and yet so far away...

Bring it. Haven't heard so much as a rumble of thunder these past 2 days here in New Haven, so yeah, I'll take a 2am thunderstorm, definitely.

It hit the outflow boundary from previous storms head on, that's what blew it up like that.