ct_yankee

Hmm, haven't delved deeply into this yet but at first glance it looks to me like the good shear will be almost entirely gone by the time the main round of storms rolls through SNE around 18 to 21z. So timing issues for sure. On the other hand, that shear will be present for the much earlier round of convection late tonight/early morning Sunday, so maybe a surprise supercell is not out of the question then, although instability will be lacking and convection probably elevated. Midlevel lapse rates look to be a bit better earlier as well. But as usual with these setups in SNE things will change right up until the event, so I will monitor trends and see. One big plus for chasing is simply that it's Sunday. Sunday is pretty much the only day when genuine chasing in SNE is even remotely feasible, so there's that. We will see.

Unbelievably, I can't seem to transfer any chase pics from my newish Moto Stylus G5 phone to my newish high-end laptop computer. It used to be so easy with my old setup. Now I'm forced to use some Microsoft garbage utility that simply tells me it can't transfer files, for reasons unknown. And I can't load the pics directly from my phone to the forum because they take up too much memory, I need to downsize the file first, which I only know how to do from my computer. So no pics from me for the moment. Can't frickin believe I can't do a simple file transfer...

Just got back from a very successful little chase, managed to intercept 2 supercells in a short amount of time. First I watched the Poughkeepsie to Hartford cell from somewhere near Rocky Hill. The storm was tornado warned at the time and looked gorgeous! I had a clear view of the updraft base - for once no precip there - and although I didn't see a lot of rotation in the wall cloud it had really nice structure, a classic New England supercell in every way. Will try to post a pic shortly. Then on the way back I got a quick look at the southern storm as I was nearing New Haven. That cell was already outflow dominant, and it practically withered away under my gaze due to the malign marine influence that we all know and love so well here beside the Sound... But the trip was totally worth it, the Hartford cell was the best I've seen in years. Glad I stuck around (mostly), I don't think I could have done any better by going way north.

Mesoscale analysis shows only the northwest corner of CT is free from MLCIN. That storm should survive at least until it outruns the good air, and possibly even after.

Dutchess county likes to produce. Seen it many times.

As of right now that cell looking like it stands a good chance of becoming the best storm of the day.

SPC truncated their 10% area, now only southern VT/NH.

Looking kinda messy up in VT already. Both the Rap and HRRR seem to want to bring strong convection through the Northern half of CT in the 5 to 7pm time frame. Could definitely get interesting. Feeling a bit better about my decision to stay close to home today.

CAMs all say central VT (and some of central NH) is the sweet spot today, just a bit too far N for me - although I would certainly travel that distance if the terrain were flat and chaseable, but it just ain't. So probably will monitor trends and only go out if something really interesting develops closer to here in far SNE, which is not looking likely. It's especially annoying as I am going to be spending a few days starting on Tuesday right in the bullseye in central VT, but you can't choose the timing of a severe day. Good luck to Wiz and anyone else actually chasing.

The warnings are not that similar either. Stuff that would be ignored in OK can get tor warned here. The local NWS office does the best they can, but with the high population densities in CT they tend to err on the side of caution and the warning threshold is often rather low. Of course, the relative unfamiliarity with rotating storms also means that occasionally some cells that should be warned aren't, or aren't warned in a timely manner. Basically, you're not in Kansas (or OK) anymore, but you'll soon get used to the way things operate around here.

Pretty ordinary shelf cloud in HVN, only slightly menacing. Not worthy of a photo. Had some hopes of a meso based on prior radar trends but area of interest got buried behind outflow dominant gust front, as almost always happens this close to stable marine air. Still, some nice thunder and lightning ongoing.

And that's the problem with SNE severe forecasting, things always keep changing right up until the day of (although there are exceptions). Which is why I seldom dive too deeply into a local severe forecast until the night before the event, and even then things always look different in the morning.

Had a look at this one just now and agree meh is the order of the day. But that's only to be expected in a New England severe forecast. Agree that southern VT/northwest MA is probably the best place to get organized convection and possibly a supercell but I also think southwest CT could see a decent squall line if things play out right with an organized cold pool. Timing is good, as are LL lapse rates, but that's about it for pros. ML lapse rates will suck as usual and LL winds will be relatively weak as has been pointed out, keeping helicity pretty low. Still, it's a severe day in CT so I'll take it, and you never know what might pop up due to mesoscale interactions, seabreeze boundaries, etc, etc. As usual, I'm fully prepared to be underwhelmed.

I thought maybe a brief CC drop as well, collocated with a very tight couplet... For one frickin' radar scan! Then poof, gone. Welcome to New England. If there was something it was a blink and you'll miss it kind of deal.

The cell clearly cycled a few times, not surprised there were multiple reports. Would love to know what happened out in the Sound, though. That supercell looked even better on radar... Guess we'll never know, unless someone on a boat got in a really lucky shot.