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Got into the low 80s today. Rain in the forecast this evening. But looks dry. Supposed to be 65 tomorrow. Upper 30s/40 tomorrow night. Would be nice if we could get some GOM lows. Could use the rain. These trailing cold fronts don't produce.
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Exactly. The models aren't good enough right now. But I see some changes. Would not be surprised.
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
FLweather replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah models aren't as bullish as they were couple of days ago. Almost such a fast flow that the surface feature outruns the UL. Cuts off moisture transport. Normally nam has a wet bias but it's been getting dryer each run. -
I'm okay with that. Looking in the long range. Plenty of potential for cold and wet spells. I see potential for this being a cold and wet winter in the SE. Just have to see. But goofus. These last two weeks or so. All over the place. It's been chilly this month for FL standards. But it's been colder.. 09-10 & 14-15.
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Gfs all over the place the last week or so. After Thanksgiving into first part of Dec favors a cold wet period for the SE.
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Sun and clouds. Near 80. A chance of sprinkles tonight less than a 1/10"
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For entertainment and verification purposes only. Hour 384 18z Goofus. First Miller A/overrunning event. 12-6-19. Snow from NM to NC mountains. Crap wont allow me to upload or copy image. Banana HP system.
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I've been noticing a potential system on the variations of models. Details not set in stone for sure. Wouldn't rule out a southern slider being one solution.
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Been chilly last couple days. Today sucked. Been near 60 +- 3 Jacket, sweats and flip flops.
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Instead of the Friday/Saturday system. It's now 24 hours ahead of schedule. No zr or sleet chances. Just cold rain. Cooling down to a warm rain 33 and up.
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12z and 18z nam show very brief zr chances with Friday/Saturday system. Mainly north and along I85/I77. Upstate SC and NC. Before temps rise to the lovely 33-34 cold rain.
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6z continues its trickery. Though cmc did show a quick round of zr for upstate sc. Alot of energy going to around the SE over the next week @h5 . Not rlly sure if I buy the double lp system for Friday. Looks like a decent chance of rain for Friday. Most of the times fronts come through dry here.
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Not gonna lie. That does look like a LES. Anyway guess the 80s are gone for awhile. The front pushing through here.
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Which lake? Hyco or Mayo? Care to upload some? Mike maze uploaded a video from somebody on FB. Of Mayo Lake. Was pretty to watch the flakes fall and the foliage.
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You actually went to Roxboro? Lol. But don't blame you. It will snow in Roxboro before anywhere else in the Piedmont.
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Friends on FB reporting snow in Roxboro. Northern half of Person County towards Mayo Lake. Big flakes. Reports of sleet in Durham.
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Exactly.
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Gfs showing around an inch for person and granville counties. But if I remember correctly that day. It was near 60 before lunchtime and snowing in the mid 30s by 4pm. IIRC that was when Charlotte had thunder snow. It snowed in Columbia and myrtle beach as well.
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I disagree. This looks like a anafrontal event. Granted not much. But looking at the models. A Lee side trough is present before the moisture and front. I may eat my words. But Tuesday will be a interesting day. I do think places such as Greensboro towards Roxboro and potential coastal plain regions will see a slop mixture. It's been highly evident that this setup is anafrontal. Due to the Lee side trough.
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Yup. Not much rain here in FL from it. But developes SLP off FL coast. Drops down to 997mb as it pulls away from NC coast. Like you said 85/75 East the cut off and greatest totals.
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Its anafrontal. Mack just hating. He has had plenty of time to leave the Deserts of SC. The great Sahara of the Appalachians.
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Something to watch. But 12z GFS and Nam both show strong frontogenesis with crashing 850 temps Tuesday afternoon/evening. Limited moisture. But areas around Danvile, Roxboro, Oxford(Nc, Va Piedmont) may see some slop with temps falling into the upper 30s before clearing out. Roughly 80 hours out.
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Nws showing a high near 70 Wednesday. Tuesday night low to mid 50s That's going to feel different.
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Wouldn't be surprised if the SE see a early winter storm. There has been a trough lingering around Fl for the last 2-3 weeks. The GOM prime for action.
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Kind of crazy to get this trough so early and so cold. But looking at the radar. Haven't seen this type of precip shield in along long time. Basically the eastern half of the Us.
