FLweather

I'll take a blend of Icon/Canadian for this coming week. Actually shows decent rain chances deep into Florida. Past several weeks the fire hose has been aligned Sw to NE well to my Nw over the panhandle AL, GA, LA, MS

There will have to be some major changes on the h5 level to even become favorable. Icon for example. The two SW need a trajectory from Montana to Tx. Not Montana to LA, Ms, Al. It's got dig more South West.

GFS? No.

Wow radar looks impressive. Good luck guys and gals. Considering how crappy this winter has been. Rooting for a over preformer.

Who would want to got to that garbage pit? Alot nice areas around the GL.

WRF came north. Looks very nam ish. Looks colder overall.

This is essentially I540 between Durham and Raleigh. Text data shows it still below freezing. Roughly within a half degree. It's a thin layer but shouldn't see consequence of a warm layer roughly 32-33. Who knows could be overcome real easy.

High sleet totals look possible for Northern SC and Southern NC.

Last night run of WRF. Obviously not as amped and a little further south of Nam. A little dryer. But still lines up with Nam as far as east NC goes.

I know. That's the reason why I said north and west of 85. Lots of potential.

North and west of I85 never disappoints.

Just yalls luck. Blow through Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March. Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May?

Considering the gfs, icon, euro then cmc. I'd take my chances with the short range mesocale models.

Granted. Sometimes the warmnoses do come in a little warmer. But this is not a amped system with a powerful H850 lp running through the coastal plain of GA, SC, NC, VA. With a bombing sfc low off the coast. This warm nose exists roughly 800mb to 750mb. From a over running system transitioning to a coastal with high potential of alot of frontogenesis. Not exactly sure where in Charlotte you stay. But judging by the soundings and raw data. Around Charlotte and north ward with plenty of moisture and lift a warmnose should be overcame. Granted you may have some pingers mix in briefly. The warmnose is not that strong. Even around Raleigh and south those levels stay at or below freezing.

Good old fashion cement paste job. But given the thermal profiles...as long as your in a good heavy band more than likely will dip below freezing. Till the rates let up.

The coastal forming very close to Jacksonville FL. Kinda makes sense. Since there is a weak wave of Lp near La and warm front draped across northern FL, Southern GA, Al.

I was about to mention that it looks less amped and suppressed. Notice too last few frames shows the coastal taking shape. East of Jacksonville Fl.

That would certainly shut up Eyewall for RDU.

This type of setup pretty well gonna be 3 things. Rain, snow or s/s mix. No possibility of zr.

H5 level is different as well. Further east with the SW vs 6z. Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed.

Wouldn't really call it a shift north. Models playing catch up on the over running precip. H5 looks roughly the same. Compare to earlier model runs having the right precip gradient at the TN, MS, AL, GA lines.

Need that Sw out west to consolidate more as it drops south and east. As depicted currently by the models. Its stretched out from the Rockies to the EC. That's causing the suppression not the HP.

The h5 level definitely more concentrated and digging more over AZ/NM vs the strung out of the gfs. Good signs but still too far out of range.

Looking at the WRF. Virginia Beach south to extreme northern Outer Banks may see some Ocean Effect snow showers/flurries tomorrow. The column is below freezing. Moisture is limited. But very possible for some low top streamers coming off the Atlantic. Winds in the lowest 6k feet coming in out the NE. Doesn't happen much. So it would be a rarity for them.