RogueWaves

First time seeing a metric snowfall map for MI. Congrats on the LES pounding. But, did you not get buried during the Dec 2022 storm as well??

Feels like a waste here so far. But clipper looms keeping hopes alive.

He's both right and wrong. On this event you want to get inland (due to early season lake warmth) and the better elevations offer the best lift. Harbor Springs/Petoskey does well on a SW flow event, more so if the lake warmth isn't so strong that it forces the streamers to dump further inland. See Dec 2001 as the bench mark when Petoskey scored 84" in that early season historic LES storm. I may check out the Gaylord area tomorrow if I find time. Oh, and getting missed by 5 or less miles. LOL - welcome to LES Edit - and now I see APX's AFD: Lake effect snow lovers around Gaylord and Sault Ste. Marie, take note -- it is hard to draw up as perfect a set up as this, and it does not come around often. Many synoptic similarities described above can be actually be drawn back to the infamous 2001 Petoskey lake effect snow event -- where totals of 80" and unofficial amounts near 100" over a several day span were recorded.

Had my 1st legit winter day and saw my first drifts - in Novi

Let the mood setting event commence..

Thx! Interesting colors

It was cold and very snowy even in S Europe not too long ago. They're riding the same temp's regime coaster we are.

I'm heading the opposite direction Friday, but the lake looks to finally produce just north of here per APX: Significant snowfall accumulations are expected in the usual snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper, particularly during the Friday into Saturday time frame. Moisture appears to be very robust during that time and forecast model soundings look phenomenal with inversion heights through the roof (or in this case 20,000 feet+). The dendritic growth zone (dgz) which is between -12 and -18 C would be entirely in the sounding promoting large snowflakes which would stack up nicely. Actually, I can`t remember seeing soundings reaching this magnitude for this long of a time period (60-72 hours+). The mean steering flow looks to lock in out of the west northwest but embedded short waves could cause the flow to waver a bit from time to time. Either way, would not be surprised if one to one and a half feet or more of snow falls in some areas during that time. In addition, gusty winds later in the week could lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow. Post Thanksgiving Day travel could become risky at best with near zero visibility likely at times in the snow belts.

Yep. Been a lot of late Nov's that looked much worse for our winter ahead.

Hmm.. so this calls it a blizzard, not just a cold wave.

That's what I figured. News reports/urban legends written in diaries, etc would be the info source vs actual wx site data at that distant time period. It's amazing how extreme some of those cold waves were back in the "pioneer" era of the Midwest. 1864 was lumped in with the two bliz events based on impacts to life. I just presumed it to be via snow/wind but not always obv.

Hope so for your sake. Completely donut holed here. NOT A FLAKE. 2013-14 started this way for me so not too worried at this point..

Let it snow! A tiny change in the expected BL thermal fields tonight would result in big changes to expected snow amounts. For now, have 2-5" for GLR/Mio/HTL/CAD. The highest amounts are near GLR/ Grayling/Mancelona. Little/no snow accums expected in eastern upper MI, or along the very immediate Great Lakes shorelines. A wide range of snow solutions remains possible. Given that this is a 2nd into 3rd period snow event, and given our office policy/approach, will not be issuing advisories at this time. But at this time, feel that advisories are likely to be needed over the interior of northern lower MI.

Certainly an arctic front came through, and maybe clashed with moisture just south of those cities down in Ohio. It wouldn't have had staying power after 1918 and 1978 if it wasn't in the same league.

Nice to have you looking out for this region. I presume you're a student at CMU?

Any of you Buckeyes have more info on the 1864 bliz? Been curious about it for yrs tbh. Ohioans who lived through the "Great Blizzard of '78" will never forget it. It is engrained as part of each person's "Ohio Experience", a legend to be told to their children and grandchildren. This storm was compared to the Blizzard of January 1918 and the New Year's Blizzard of 1864 for ferocity and disruption to everyday lives.

Just lived thru the sunniest Sept/Oct I ever remember in the Northland. And you want to flee The Mitten so fast??

These secondary spin-ups are notoriously ill handled. Not surprising in the least really

What? No vid for here comes the (white) rain again??

CPC on the threat towards next weekend: Detailed SummaryFor Sunday November 17 - Thursday November 21: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. HazardsFor Friday November 22 - Thursday November 28: Ensemble solutions from the GEFS and ECENS both depict a deep mid-level trough with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes region at the outset of week-2. This system is the product of strong lee cyclogenesis which is expected to bring hazardous weather to the Great Plains during week-1. Model consensus favors the surface low to become occluded and stall early in week-2, lingering over the Great Lakes for several days. Model guidance has consistently indicated this to be a potent storm system with significant potential to generate a variety of hazardous weather conditions spread out over much of the U.S. east of the Rockies.Ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to favor an occluded low pressure system to settle over Ontario during the week-2 period, resulting in a prolonged period of westerly to northwesterly surface flow over the Great Lakes, which are at or near record high surface temperatures. Cold air aloft results in very steep lapse rates, further contributing to favorable lake-effect snow conditions. Consensus among models is for this favorable setup to be at its strongest for Nov 22-23, therefore a moderate risk for heavy snow is posted for portions of the Great Lakes most prone to lake-effect snow, while a broader slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Great Lakes, much of the Ohio Valley, and portions of the Central Appalachians and Northeast U.S. for Nov 22-26. Surface temperatures are forecast to be near freezing, this increases uncertainty regarding snow totals with rain likely mixing with snow at times, and may make for sloppy conditions across the lake effect snow belts. With a concurrent enhanced potential for high winds the potential for excessive snow accumulations might be further reduced, but instead is replaced with a potential for blizzard conditions.

I want a blocky pattern cut-off spinner over the Lakes mid-winter Feb '85 style.

Had frozen puddles all day. Another step taken towards winter.

Sad. Hit 19.9 here and NOT coldest of the season.

It can, especially on the heels of four straight AN seasons for ORD. Smart $$ would've been betting against 11-12 going big, let alone snow-maggedon that was the going hype from many sources.

It's that guy that rarely reports. I don't think he's on here tbh. Shocking that because I left, Canton out-snowed mby, lol