RogueWaves

Glad to have missed all the real snow. Still, a fairly miserable near winter day. Full on spring can't come fast enough imho

On 3/9/2020 at 5:00 PM, Angrysummons said:

How good is the reanalysis data back from 1851-1947?? It shows the January 1st 1864 storm............not so impressive.

I heard radar was down for that storm. Can prolly toss that one..

Was really ripping in Jackson around 2-3 pm where I work. Airport had 2 hourlies at 1/4 mi vis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 PM EST WED FEB 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     SNOW             3 SSE CLARK LAKE        42.08N 84.31W
02/26/2020  E8.5 INCH        JACKSON            MI   PUBLIC

            LAKE COLUMBIA.

Pushing 5" here with 3 hr extension of my headlines. Feb has now officially become a "snowy month" here. That's anything >150% of normal. In this case, currently sitting at 160% fwiw

About 1" on my deck here since evening. Even pavement is nicely covered. 

11 minutes ago, DAFF said:

Warm ground temps, marginal cold, equals spoiler of the clown maps.

Been a constant theme all season 

Just now, MIstorm97 said:

Gonna be either an amped rainer or sheared out 1-3 incher. Story of the winter

Nothing good has come together besides 11-11 and 1-17/18

On 2/11/2020 at 4:10 PM, sbnwx85 said:

How to make a small dog look like a Big Dog - change the color scheme 

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

Definitely like how this one is turning, gives us some room in case it decides to go to shit last minute.

Yeah, watch sampling take all the wind out of our sails yet again..

2 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Very fluffy and temperatures were near freezing, so it settled quickly. Still after tomorrow, I’ll be near DTW’s average February total already. 
 

Video from earlier today:

 

Did you get any headlines for that? 

^ last minute N bump in a mild winter. Shocking! 

My office going bullish with a 2-4" thinking at this point. Need S trends to be #freal for that to be legit on the bottom tier of the CWA 

4.8" as of this morning w/4" depth. Feel like I got an invite to the winner's circle after all..

Nearing one solid inch despite donut holing for a bit. Not bad for first 2 hrs. 

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Great call for mby 

42 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I highly doubt 6", but it would be incredible to have a 3rd 6"+ storm in this winter.

34 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Idk man HRRR really trying to out down 3+ before 7am with the snow ending around 10 looking at the sim radar 

Flakes could be just sugar-sand variety ice crystals, thus divide maps in half. Not a forecast, but a concern mentioned by GRR yesterday. That combined with long duration could be the reason to hesitate on a WWA. Hoping for solid last-minute trends for once myself. 

On 2/3/2020 at 6:35 AM, slow poke said:

You should have decent snow up in Munising when you’re up there. My bro n law just got back from snowmobiling up there all weekend and said there’s pretty good snow but they could definitely use more. On our way home from our place up at Higgins yesterday there’s good snow till you get just south of west Branch, then it’s like a switch and someone turned off the snow. We have about 14” of really heavy snow at our place right now. It’s crazy that 175 miles north and 400 feet of elevation can look so different then around home, it’s like a totally different world with deep snow, people out ice fishing compared to home with extremely green grass for this time of year and no ice on any lakes to be found.  It kinda reminds me of out west in the mountains when you can have warm weather and bare ground down in towns and valleys at lower elevations and deep snow just a hour or less just up the mountain. 

It is amazing, and we're pretty fortunate to have this option during winter. Many states west of us don't. They don't get the extra snow from the GL's like we do. Even more contrasting can sometimes be seen in early spring. I remember back in the 90's we'd be downstate for Easter holiday visits and there would already be greened-up lawns in April due to T-storms. Then drive back home outside of Traverse and there'd be an iceberg of condensed snow a foot deep and Peeps crossing the hwy on snowmobiles. '86 was even more extreme. Folks going up to their cabin for Easter break and having to plow 24" out of their driveways just to get in. And that was in NEMI, not even the classic snowbelt zone. Do you remember the infamous ABC news footage back in May of '82? On World News Tonight they did a story about the Regan era military build-up and somehow decided on footage from Camp Grayling as their example of troops in training. Here it was a warm May day and these soldiers are running around in the 18" deep remainder of the awesome snow pack from that legendary winter! You want to see when Alpena was raking, check out their snow totals all thru the 80's. 

2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Lock it in. 

Yep, bout time us S of the Chi-town crew get a bulls-eye event. 

11 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

NW fringe of things just a tick or two readjustment SE knocks NW burbs out. Not expecting much unless models come in stronger NW

Don't really need NW. Do need stronger tho! Getting out-snowed by TX or OK would suck. 

Just now, Stebo said:

I like the shift but I'm concerned it isn't  done yet and it will keep shifting right past here. 

Contamination line even gets back here on some GEFS members, so yeah, even more concern your way. Still, trends are much better than it all going east of the Sub or weak BS

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Id say its pretty even split of trends going our way or against us. What kills me is that in literally one day, I have went from barely getting scraped by snow with a whiff southeast, to having the best snow go Northwest and getting in on sleet. I'm the first one to tell everybody not to take model runs at face value, and look at trends and ensembles, but even that is turning into a circus!

Yeah, even ENS have been junk in the MR. I think we are now seeing some much needed consistency, hopefully leaving the mega-bouncing phase behind. Now the Euro looks to be your friend. I'll be shocked if SEMI's magnet for big storms this winter is somehow denied this time, lol.  

Kinda surprised at 2 things this morning. Temps did indeed plunge overnight. I questioned the 31F in my grid, yet we did even better getting into the upr 20s with lots of frost and frozen up puddles. The other surprise was how many areas of patchy snow survived the 51F & sunshine, even out in the open farm fields. With plow banks and piles in abundance, it really won't take much fresh snow fall to make it look like mid-winter again. 

12z GFS was a beaut via Kuchera for SWMI

54 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Lock it in.

For once, the dreaded d3/4 sig shift has gone our way. 

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is downright comical. In 1 day lmao. Another reason i always get a kick out of when some people get so panicky on one days runs or trends.

It's actually close to 2 day's of runs, but the point remains it is beyond laughable amount of shifting.