RogueWaves

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.  

26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Look's like a whole lot of rain.  

 

It is, followed by windy SHSN which even per the GFS's own output amounts to very little south of NMI snow belts. I wish the models would just quit already with the teases. 

7 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

Yay! Thx for the good news..tho not surprised. 

Euro won't "let go the bone" on a GOMEX Low next Friday

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Long ways off but it never gets old seeing big storms like that show up in the long range.  Luckily we have another 11 days to get that to trend a bit northwest. 

Nah..ride it!

44 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The pattern lacks arctic air(outside the short lived intrusion next week), but yeah, I am surprised that kind of bomb couldn't generate a cold sector snow swath further south. But we are talking about a 192-216 fantasy range stuff. Better watching than the cold biased GFS crap though lol.

Christmas Eve 2014 was plagued with this same lack of true cold air and didn't produce much south of Canada! This is at least "trying", tho as you say, it's still fantasy range attm. 

This would be such a kick to the junk!  Ideal path west of the Apps, just to be lacking decent cold. Rub your's rabbit's foot, feet, or whatever works to keep this from happening!

My office hitting the LES potential next Tue-Thu pretty hard. With any luck, I could get a period of favorable fetch somewhere in that time-frame and add some bonus amts. 

2013 to date vs current season to date comparison. Looks to my tired eyes that we be out-pacing at this early stage:

2013-14 Season. Yeah, I could do 8+ feet again 

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

Sounds like my winter of 1994 in NMI. I totally get it

18 hours ago, Chinook said:

Snow % of normal up to this date. This is a large amount of snowfall across the country. Weather enthusiasts (on this discussion board) Chicago, eastern Iowa, the Northeast, and the Mountain West discussion group have quite a bit above normal. A relatively small amount of snow in Tennessee and a few southern areas appear as a >750% of normal snowfall.  I wonder what the meteorological winter will hold for us.

I find these all encompassing snow maps to be wrong more often than not (usually on the light side). For example, it shows mby at 125%  of normal when I'm actually at 300%. 

Also, all major reporting locales across NMI are reporting a surplus so the large area of yellow there is highly suspect as well:  https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is maybe not what you want to see if you are from Minnesota or Wisconsin, but the 12z GFS has -23 degrees at the Twin Cities at hour 144 (December 11th), and the 00z Euro has -19 degrees.

Will be a sad day in the wx world if nothing noteworthy comes of such an arctic intrusion as being depicted. Seems like something would take advantage of such a dynamic movement in the upper levels. 

13 hours ago, DAFF said:

Still better than EC... 

True dat, sadly.

2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

One such scenario.....

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Just once....one of these to come to fruition 

I'd be real leery of getting burned by a d10 suppression scenario off the GFS - just sayin'. But ok, Memphis is going from zero winter to 2 feet..

Chicago officially jinxed - TWC likes you for the Mon-Tue storm.. 

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

garbage model

It still has it's known biases. But, at least they're a known quantity, lol.  It should be catching on any day now. I like the GEFS current projection. Need a little slower, a little more phasing, and a little less cutting of the SLP and I'll be in the game. 

We really need some snow threats around here, and fast! 

Yeah, after all it's "winter cancel season" lol. With all the stellar analog seasons, both recent and long past, it will be a truly epic fail if this turns turd for S MW/GL's/OHV. Bill Deedler's outlook (focused on SEMI ofc) contains an analog list that leans "yesteryear", but man what a list. We are talking winters of yore for cold, snow totals, and strong storms/blizzards. Now, if you also allow for the fact that many of those seasons 40-100+ yrs ago did not benefit from the current high-moisture era, the potential for an incredible season is lurking in there for at least some portion of our Sub.  Roger likes Chicago, and indeed Deedler's list contains 78-79. Others like the SST's and blob alignment to reflect 2013-14, while others would go 02-03 putting the bonanza zone a bit further S and E in the OHV. A combination of those (3) analogs mixed with others that featured more dynamic storms is my personal vision of the winter ahead. I'm not into trying to predict actual snowfall amounts, but I do like our Sub for an above to well above normal snowfall winter. If pressed, I'd lean towards an ORD to DTW winner's circle with DTW edging ORD in the positive departures column. 

Euro looks mild and boring - yuck!

Euro drumming up an OHV special 12-13th ish

On 11/30/2019 at 11:45 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Dec 2016 was colder than average here. This post made me look at the cold season months this decade at Detroit to see how many were colder than average and how many were warmer than average. To keep it simple, 0.1° either way is either colder or warmer than average, I did not do any of that 1ﾟ within normal type of stuff.

 

 Not surprisingly, December is the black sheep for cold anomalies. Averages exist for a reason, sometimes it's above, sometimes it's below. Cold season months more often than not finished colder than avg this decade.

2010s

Nov 6 cold, 4 mild

Dec 4 cold, 6 mild (ASSUMING 2019 is mild)

Jan 6 cold, 4 mild

Feb 5 cold, 5 mild

Mar 7 cold, 3 mild

Apr 6 cold, 4 mild

I really feel this one's going to end up being BN, thus we'll have a 5-5 split for the decade. 

Even WPC has some BN outlined in their 3-7d outlook. Month will NOT be dominated by warm-n-blah. 

I will be in NWMI for this, so I'm pulling strongly for the south/colder models/trends to win out. 

0z NAM, SLR & Kuchera by order:

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don S winter thoughts.  Don't read if you like snowy winters 

 

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd. 

12 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Oh yes... I enjoy taking care of the birds all year... woodpeckers and black caps mostly, they're the only ones that stick around.

Ended up with far less snow than predicted.  Instead of 10:1 slr's, it was more like 7-8:1. Without power, I fell asleep pretty quick once it got dark so I didn't get a final measurement but this morning the driveway has 18-20" of wind-packed concrete you can pretty much walk on top of and it was clear prior.

Still no power... felt like the longest night ever, so quiet and dark.  I'm addicted to my fan I'm pretty sure!

Happy Thanksgiving guys!

But that's one helluva base!

Gonna be a snoozefest around here for the foreseeable future. So tough to get early sustained winter thru the heart of this sub. When it did happen (2000) that WAS winter.