RogueWaves

Looking like one for the ages along 94. Been a while since GRR spent so much ink mentioning anything besides "131 and west". After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile, farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft. This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to Clare line by the 9 AM time frame. This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by 1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7 PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would expect in mid January instead of mid November. The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall. Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as is often the case in these scenarios. In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described above. In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint of this here at the office. And they've added winds to 40 mph in the headline wording too. I know you're not the biggest wind geek like me, but you have to admit it's pretty wild for the first real event of the season. And ofc, it finally happens 1 yr after I've moved on.

Yeah, not that that would hurt the cause, but it'd still be the dispersed version, just a bit heavier. To mimic KBUF, you'd have to re-draw the shape of SWMI's coast line so it funneled to a point just west of Kzoo. That'd be about perfect I think.

kinda surprised by more SHSN this evening. Much drier fluffly dendrites than the SNeet last evening. FIrst biting WC's in the teens makes it seem quality Dec

So far it looks like the surface winds are actually cooperating in more or less a due westerly flow. Marshall may finally do ok.

I have not but going on a limb that Greenland blocking is doing it's work?

Per GRR, the worst/heaviest for some may hold off until Saturday. The 2nd Arctic front blasts through GR mid-day. 12k NAM reflecting a pretty intense squall line.

I always know if it's a good "winter" when drifts are from more than just the W. Same could be said about who's getting dumped on with LES.

Oh. Yes that week long LES event in Dec '01 was just stuck on a WSW trajectory making Petoskey the winner in The Mitt. Not even sure what totals were elsewhere. I was really disappointed in S. Bend as that wind direction is a no-go and the potential historic outbreak had been spoken of for days prior.

I'd be ok with that. Haven't even seen a legit rainer around here since Idk when??

I'd wager a bunch of bitcoins that 4" it shows reaching mby here in W Detroit never happens. I think it was the HRRR that was throwing around insane amounts for Chicago burbs just the other day. Difference here for WMI is ofc this is legit arctic front incoming.

I know that, but your post said N Mich, not yby. I was just citing LES events when some places in NMI had those crazy totals KBUF is used to. Most events, sh*t's way too transient. Best bet is Lk Superior to Lk Michigan fire hose. There's been a couple in the last decade iirc.

Same over here. First evening commute with snow on the pavement. Was just a couple mile zone between work and home where there must've been a decent band come through. Looked like a legit snow there. A mile south at my place = another dab so I'm officially at 0.2" for this event.

It's pretty telling that even S Lansing (6+) and W Eaton (8+) have that much on their map. Places like Plainwell-Otsego may rake with this one. Dec '90 my former in-laws got 27" there in 2 days.

That's always the issue, especially for the 2/3 of Calhoun east of BC. If GRR was more accurate (or less lazy Idk), they would use the severe wx warning cone and just issue the warning for the NW 1/3 of Calhoun. How many times did I get excited, only to be very disappointed in a more-or-less false headline for Marshall area.

NOT always. Dec '95 5 feet in The Sault, Dec '01 Petoskey had 7 feet. Just harder without the snow funnel that is Lk Erie, not to mention the even warmer water temps early season.

If you haven't watched, maybe now's the time? The storm was also a thing for Chicago believe it or not..

I'll give you those two. I thought all those juicy rain makers last autumn would yield some good systems in season but nope. Trying to see if the opposite can happen if we go into winter dry-ish, do we then flip wet when it matters for snow? I've seen both work out. In 81-82 cold & wet led into cold & snowy. In 13-14 first half of October was so mild it looked like winter didn't want to happen, then we got cold in Nov but the OHV was scoring snowstorms while we were sunny and dry.

No direct report for Canton on the DTX list (that's why I used '05), but it was even bigger ofc than '05. Snow map combined with surrounding reports looks like it was a solid +/-14 incher here so I know it can snow here when it wants to. Looks like downriver again was the jack-zone perhaps with help from Lk. Erie? ANN ARBOR M 14.1 NORTHVILLE M 14.2

IDIOT traffic jams! Showing accumulation on all surfaces. Looks like at least 1 crash on some of the cams.

Yeah, you're in the prime area - far northern burbs. I'm in Canton, hence that list from the '05 near bliz showing Canton doing very well. Last winter was my first here, and even DTW and downriver region has outperformed this place. Just crap luck bad timing no doubt. I'm sure I beat Coleman A. Young airport for instance. This can't be the worst place around, even if it feels like it.

@ 5:1 what's that yield?

Just in..massive storm flashed on model around Turkey Day buries Chicago and much of The Mitt

Yes, it was a true LES-only event on a cold northerly blast. There were 2 that Nov about 10 days apart. The 2nd one's jackzone was about 5 miles inland but with the same NNW wind vector post CF passage.

I don't mean to sound "down" on my new locale (I knew where I was going winter-wise after all), but I'm on a losing streak several winters long now and it's "show me the goods" mode for me, and well so far lame misses in all directions have been the rule. Need me a Jan 23, 2005 or GHD-2 level event to pull me out of the nosedive, lol. ...WAYNE... LINCOLN PARK 13.8 CANTON 12.5 LIVONIA 12.5 DETROIT METRO AIRPORT 12.2 BROWNSTOWN 12.1 WYANDOTTE 11.0 REDFORD 9.5 WESTLAND 9.0

11-12-13 when I worked in St. Joe we had 17" of LES literally across the street from lake front property. Not sure the parameters during that event, but the winds were more parallel to the roughly N-S shoreline, not perpendicular like Chicago will see.