RogueWaves

Liking the GEM looks and apparently so is DTX. Overnight more bullish than I can remember this office being: The quiet weather comes to an end Wednesday as the next winter storm targets the region. Unlike many of the recent systems that have curled north over the Midwest keeping us on the warm side of the storm, models have held firm with a more southern track with the surface and mid level lows tracking from Texas (Wed 00Z) up to Ohio (Thurs 00Z) with southern MI solidly on the northwestern flank of the system. Many ingredients are becoming favorable for an accumulating snowfall over the area. The surface low will be maturing near the area, favorable mid level deformation noses into the southern Great Lakes, entrance region dynamics from an exiting jet and exit region dynamics from rapidly approaching jet, deformation region passing over the area, and a wealth of moisture to name a few. Just how much snow will fall remains in question as we are still 5 days out and a shift south would keep us more in a light snow scenario, and north could push heaviest snow to the north. For now we`ll highlight the potential for accumulating snowfall Wednesday morning through the overnight.

Not sure what to think about being under SN zone back to back days

Never saw a hint of flakes. Is DTW down wind of a smoke stack or something? They seem like snow haven

DTX less descriptive than GRR by a long shot although given the timerange there is reasonable agreement among the deterministic models.A meaningful snow for SE MI becomes increasingly possible if thistrack can hold going forward in upcoming forecasts.

Today's CPC "cone" of expectations:

0z NAM came in hot for mby/SEMI with a 3" hit. Would be a fantastic way to start the return to winter Wider view:

KTOL needs even colder than KDTW! That cold blast in Feb '21 was their turn

Models are tuned to present eye candy on marginal conditions - no joke

Still remember @A-L-E-K Jeb walking in 70 mph at the lakeshore. Was geeked for mby too when certain outlets were showing maps of 20-25" across SMI. Thought I was going to finally see a legit CAT-5 monster. Was quite deflating when it only delivered about 10 or 11" half of the over-hyped amounts.

Not to be off topic too much, but Marshall was a screw-hole for all but that one single week in mid-February. That was my one legit Storm Warning in the last 4.5 winters. We had deep snow cover for a week, then torched and winter was over.

In a JAN that has historically cold temps, not this one, lol

Ikr. This is my 3rd straight winter of next to nothing to track/watch/be excited for so I've become a rather cynic's cynic! Also likely suffering from a bad case of SAD on top of the lack of snow events. Lets see if Sunday's little thing can do something, anything to increase my outlook on Wednesday.

I've never counted the "T's" as events. Plus, I was just messin a bit w/him. I've had 9 days of measurable snowfall here despite the low-balling from nearly every angle by nearly every system, lol

I wish I knew what exactly makes you state that? I live right on the western edge of it and it is a legit 3F or more difference in just a handful of miles to my west. Many times since moving here I've watched my car thermo drop those amounts as I head west (county line just 4 mi). One time I've seen it more like a 6 or 8 deg drop. In a marginal situation even a few degrees can make the difference between legit SN and white RN. This place knows how to screw-up a snowstorm, that's for certain. If there's any consolation, a more favorable NE wind is preferable to the dreaded SE like at Christmas.

Been way too much WAW this month

You've had 10 events?? Livin large my man

Hoping that the "split the difference" GEM is smoking the good crack.

I hate where I'm sitting. In a JAN that's acting more like a NOV, fears of UHI screwing me are legit. This thing surges too strong and it's going to push a ton of warmth up with it. I can see most of my qpf wasted on liquid yet again. Talk me out it, lol

++SARC

Sucks to be a Cornhusker

^ 1st WWA of the season for ya then

Guess I forgot you guys had been here before, and just a short decade ago. The two DEC blizzards really avoided ORD. I at least got a glancing blow with the Boxing Day storm at RMY

2/24/16 (couldn't find my tracks map)

BUT....this year's been pretty high suckage. We all know that constant snow cover at our LAT(s) is a very low percentage occurrence of all seasons. That's why I call winter in SMI any time we at least have snow piles around in between the snow fall and snow depth days. So far, that has been limited to a handful of days at the end of December. Have to go back decades I think to find something this lame. Even 11-12 had yielded much more snow at this point.

Was treated very well last winter with 5 or 6 so prolly due a break this winter tbh. But over all they have been less frequent during the last 3-4 winters replaced by numerous hybrids it would seem.