RogueWaves

Back when pigs flew

I am about 4 miles north.

Not THAT much. I was in Marshall nearly 20 yrs (02-21), then Metro Detroit 2.5 yrs. I could stay here just fine and hopefully will. Middle of the Mitt and basically everything within a few hrs drive (or less).

New Years Eve. Yeah, surprisingly good score for DTW. Big month here as well with 31.7"

I guess now that I left Canton, it decided to snow there again. Ofc

Solid snow this evening making for another dicey commute. X-way was the worst. Estimating 2-3 inches fell right around 31-32F. Nice to see b4 the warm RN up next. This was a fun stretch considering the ENSO backdrop.

That's what I arrived home in. Had to stop by the super market and noticed everybody was letting their cars just run and wipers on delay so they didn't have to have a frozen windshield to deal with when they came out. I joined the party and left mine running too. First time for that. So glad I did.

APX mentioned we are getting EC style system during this Nino with up to 4"/hr rates with help from Huron. I had 2+/hr here and look to be easily at 8" so far. Backside fluff will likely be the lesser 1/3 of the total, same as with the Tue-Wed system.

Huh?? Not over here.

DTX mentioned that temps aloft may end up 1-2 degrees Celsius lower than expected. It may be just enough to help in some marginal scenarios.

Perhaps Detroit proper got screwed a bit which seems common with the stronger storms tracking near there, but other areas west in The Mitt were pummeled.

1917-18 was an historic cold and snowy winter for the OHV/S. Lakes. I think there was a substantial snow pack already when that hit. Much like the 78 bliz, impacts were magnified across SMI and OH. And just like 78, it wasn't forecast to bomb-out to Huron, but to take a more typical path eastward. It also may be one, if not the first storm where rescuing stranded motorists (yes in their state of the art Model T's) was a modern day phenomenon that made newspaper articles.

Jan 12, 1918 bombed-out from the Gulf states to Huron as well.

Apparently, the first in that historic series of storms hit right at the end of December '78 as seen by the nice snow cover left on New Years Day 1979. Can't help but notice the similarities with what is happening in this unfolding pattern. The "Blizzard of '79" hit 1/13-14 and was further east so that SEMI was included in the nice accumulations.

Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. GRR 4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE), indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980 mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2 or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

I'm liking this and foresee less extreme wobbles moving forward. Recon input may be helping dial things in sooner.

That's the DTW blob of wx BS. Meanwhile, 16" at my place. Nice!

Liking where I sit attm Umm, what was 3/3/23 if not also a strong SLP not going NW last minute?

A lot like last March 3rd storm for SEMI

Please expand on that

For cities not listed

SWMI's version of that was 12-28, 2015. Looks like odds increase for those events during these Nino's

That almost sounds like 11-12 (which all seasonal outlooks were predicting "worst winter in history" due to prior 4 years of heavy winters). Obviously, the law of averages was against a 5th such winter. As said about 15-16, while it was a pretty mild winter, some of us cashed-in nicely like mby at 116% of average. December was the only truly bad month, but even it featured that strong sleet storm late in the month.

I'd say 0.3-0.4" here in Canton for the day. Expected only mood flakes, so over-performed.

The part about CLE was no joke! I once read old newspaper archives about snowstorms and one article mentioned a strong bomb-storm in 1873 that took a KIND->KAZO track.