RogueWaves

Hmm.. so this calls it a blizzard, not just a cold wave.

That's what I figured. News reports/urban legends written in diaries, etc would be the info source vs actual wx site data at that distant time period. It's amazing how extreme some of those cold waves were back in the "pioneer" era of the Midwest. 1864 was lumped in with the two bliz events based on impacts to life. I just presumed it to be via snow/wind but not always obv.

Hope so for your sake. Completely donut holed here. NOT A FLAKE. 2013-14 started this way for me so not too worried at this point..

Let it snow! A tiny change in the expected BL thermal fields tonight would result in big changes to expected snow amounts. For now, have 2-5" for GLR/Mio/HTL/CAD. The highest amounts are near GLR/ Grayling/Mancelona. Little/no snow accums expected in eastern upper MI, or along the very immediate Great Lakes shorelines. A wide range of snow solutions remains possible. Given that this is a 2nd into 3rd period snow event, and given our office policy/approach, will not be issuing advisories at this time. But at this time, feel that advisories are likely to be needed over the interior of northern lower MI.

Certainly an arctic front came through, and maybe clashed with moisture just south of those cities down in Ohio. It wouldn't have had staying power after 1918 and 1978 if it wasn't in the same league.

Nice to have you looking out for this region. I presume you're a student at CMU?

Any of you Buckeyes have more info on the 1864 bliz? Been curious about it for yrs tbh. Ohioans who lived through the "Great Blizzard of '78" will never forget it. It is engrained as part of each person's "Ohio Experience", a legend to be told to their children and grandchildren. This storm was compared to the Blizzard of January 1918 and the New Year's Blizzard of 1864 for ferocity and disruption to everyday lives.

Just lived thru the sunniest Sept/Oct I ever remember in the Northland. And you want to flee The Mitten so fast??

These secondary spin-ups are notoriously ill handled. Not surprising in the least really

What? No vid for here comes the (white) rain again??

CPC on the threat towards next weekend: Detailed SummaryFor Sunday November 17 - Thursday November 21: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. HazardsFor Friday November 22 - Thursday November 28: Ensemble solutions from the GEFS and ECENS both depict a deep mid-level trough with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes region at the outset of week-2. This system is the product of strong lee cyclogenesis which is expected to bring hazardous weather to the Great Plains during week-1. Model consensus favors the surface low to become occluded and stall early in week-2, lingering over the Great Lakes for several days. Model guidance has consistently indicated this to be a potent storm system with significant potential to generate a variety of hazardous weather conditions spread out over much of the U.S. east of the Rockies.Ensemble and deterministic model solutions continue to favor an occluded low pressure system to settle over Ontario during the week-2 period, resulting in a prolonged period of westerly to northwesterly surface flow over the Great Lakes, which are at or near record high surface temperatures. Cold air aloft results in very steep lapse rates, further contributing to favorable lake-effect snow conditions. Consensus among models is for this favorable setup to be at its strongest for Nov 22-23, therefore a moderate risk for heavy snow is posted for portions of the Great Lakes most prone to lake-effect snow, while a broader slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Great Lakes, much of the Ohio Valley, and portions of the Central Appalachians and Northeast U.S. for Nov 22-26. Surface temperatures are forecast to be near freezing, this increases uncertainty regarding snow totals with rain likely mixing with snow at times, and may make for sloppy conditions across the lake effect snow belts. With a concurrent enhanced potential for high winds the potential for excessive snow accumulations might be further reduced, but instead is replaced with a potential for blizzard conditions.

I want a blocky pattern cut-off spinner over the Lakes mid-winter Feb '85 style.

Had frozen puddles all day. Another step taken towards winter.

Sad. Hit 19.9 here and NOT coldest of the season.

It can, especially on the heels of four straight AN seasons for ORD. Smart $$ would've been betting against 11-12 going big, let alone snow-maggedon that was the going hype from many sources.