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Everything posted by JBG
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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?
JBG replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That sure happened in December 2010, the Boxing Day Blizzard. That was also a Niña. -
Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
JBG replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
I actually never knew that. They were originally the Brooklyn Atlantics. Everything changed with the creation of the subway system, which fueled the amalgamation of modern NYC. -
Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
JBG replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Bronx is very much in New York City. Most of the Bronx and all of Manhattan were in the original, pre-December 31, 1897 NYC; Queens (a collection of villages), Brooklyn (in its own right the second or third largest US City at the time) and Staten Island (a collection of villages) were added effective January 1, 1898, the birthday of NYC as we know it. -
Your lips to G-d's ears.
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Prediction of the first snowfall for the NYC area.
JBG replied to MJO812's topic in New York City Metro
February 30, 2024. Only kidding, thinking January 15, 2024. -
I don't know. In my neck of the woods, the New York area, 1972-3 could not have been more different than 2009-10, even though both were cold-phase El Niños. 1982-3 and 2015-6 at least had one huge KU, unlike 1972-3 or 1997-8.
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1972 had a couple; December 15, 1972, which IIRC hugged the coast, causing a changeover, and January 29, 1973 (same story). There were two biggies that plastered the Southeast, from Atlanta to Charleston to Wilmington (NC). There was one in mid-to-late March 1992. I don't remember if the "Storm of the Century" circa March 12, 1993 was during a Niño or it it was already neutral.
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Don't forget 2015-6 and 1972-3. 1982-3 may be similar though that was following a warm-neutral (right after the Great Pacific Shift) from mid-1979 through April 1982.
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In Westchester County on the Connecticut line, we're lucky if we got six. More like four or five.
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On February 11, 1983 I remember watching the slow advance from the law library on Vesey Street. I saw the curtain of snow envelope the Verrazano. I grabbed the subway to my office on 40th street where it barely started snowing about 30 minutes later. The edge of the snow really crawled.
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I "third" you. I lost my real Dad at 15, he was 47, in 1973. Fortunately it was from great to greater, but I lost my next Dad after almost 41 years knowing him and being his stepson my of the time in 2013.
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Sweet. And my condolences.
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That's a keeper, and going out to my mailing list!
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You are quite right. I was referring to "Doria" as "Edith." Courtesy of my bad memory.
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What about February 1983?
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If I'm not mistaken both Edith and Agnes made landfall as high-impact tropical storms. Both had epic rains. A warm front spawned by Agnes had greater rain impact than Agnes' rain did directly in the New York City area. We had about 7-8" in Westchester from that, and another 3" or so from Agnes. This is just going off memory. A lot else was happening in my life on the day of the pre-Agnes storm, including a near-expulsion from High School. Agnes' impact in upstate New York and interior Pennsylvania was devastating. When I went to the Corning Glass Factory in August 1972 the ground floor was still inaccessible. When I went back with my family in April 2007 we saw the waterline. Too bad I don't have a picture. Edith was mostly a very rainy windstorm. Also, Edith in an indirect was worsened the impact of Agnes. Despite the prevailing La Niña (which ended in the Spring of 1972) the months after Agnes, including especially late spring of 1972 left the East so waterlogged as to really increase Agnes' flooding potential.
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There was nothing at all lackluster about 1977-8 (HECS in early February and important event in late January) or 1978-9 (one of the biggest cold waves in history capped off by a HECS on President's Day 1979, usually known as PD I, not be be confused with PD II in 2003). Even 1970-1 had a decent event New Year's Eve, and 1971-2 had a storm that gave mixed precip to NYC but crushed the Appalachians. Ithaca had its all-time record of 26" (I think) inches. All those aside, aside from notable cold waves in January 1970, January 1971, and December 1976-January 1977 the 1970's were nothing to write home about. Hurricane Edith (1971) and Belle (1976) did hit the metro area.
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Quite true. It was a strong La Niña. The winters before, 1971-2 and 1972-3 were notoriously "unsnowy." The numbers look better for 1971-2 but almost all were front loaders with rain washaways. 1974-5 had a 10" storm in early February and a surprise 6" in late March with a forecast changeover that largely busted. 1975-6, 1976-7 and 1979-80 were total busts. The 1980's had similar patterns. It wasn't really until "the storm of the century" in mid-March 1993 did we start getting decent winters. 1993-4 and 1995-6 were historic. From then on, every few winters were decent. But the 1970s and 1980s; the less said about them the better.
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Just about. The snow started at about noon, kicked over to ZR around 2:30-3:00 p.m. and rained heavily for a while, at 23°-27°, then tapered off to freezing drizzle around 10:00 a.m. the next day, and ended as a tiny amount of snow, really flurries. If you want to check the news there was a Jets game that day and a truck plunged through the decking of the overhead West Side Highway, causing its permanent closure and ultimate demolition. Ironically DC stayed all snow and got something like 6"-8", but I was in suburban New York, not there.
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December 1973 had that. 3" ice (literally skate-able in the backyard (I was in high school and skated between mine and a friend/neighbor's yards the day after), then three days in the teens-low twenties, then rain with no snow to start.
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Just got a new pair of cross-country ski boots; wait till next year I guess.
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The Rule of "11's" in New York City Summers - Bake-offs
JBG replied to JBG's topic in New York City Metro
The early July and the August/September heat waves were dry. The late July one, not so much. And this summer's warmth (very little heat) were humid. -
The Rule of "11's" in New York City Summers - Bake-offs
JBG replied to JBG's topic in New York City Metro
From my memory eight sounds about right. We had the 100+ wave in early July, another intensely hot spell in late July and another in late August/early September. -
The Rule of "11's" in New York City Summers - Bake-offs
JBG replied to JBG's topic in New York City Metro
From what I remember Joseph D'Aleo has said, 1980 and 1991 were "failed El Niños." 1993 was a crumbling El Niño leading to a "cold-neutral" for 1993-4, which is short of a La Niña. I personally think the trend, i.e. with cooling in Niñ0 is more important than the actual state. For example 1973 and 2010 were rapid plunges from fairly significant El Niños to significant La Niñas, as was one summer we haven't discussed, 1970. 1970 was a drop, not plunge, from a moderate El Niño to a moderate La Niña. During periods when the Pacific is warming, though still at Niña levels the summers are not back-to-back hot. Examples are 1974, 1984 and 2008. Niño 3.4 temperatures were quite "droppy" during 1980, though not to Niña levels.