thunderwolf

Hmmm, I wonder what happened in 1996?

The 3k NAM is a bit overdone for inland locations I think. It is overamped and I think a track that far inland is an outlier. Right now, I think the 60-70 mph gusts will be contained to the US 17 corridor and eastward for NC. If anyone sees hurricane gusts, I think it's going to be directly along the coast. The ECMWF may have the track right, but those gusts maps have been 10-20% higher than verification for the majority of areas during recent storms the past couple of years.

I like looking at current observational trends as much as the next guy, but not a single GFS or ECMWF ensemble shows this. While I am always leery of the models in a stalled tropical system scenario, the amount of agreement we have between all the reliable models makes me much more confident that we will see a northward movement tomorrow. I think the question going forward is whether we will see a landfall in the Carolinas. Models have been waffling back and forth by 10 miles or so with no clear trend either way.

Just an FYI, based on my experience with tropical systems the past few years, these maps tend to be over done by 10-20% vs what ends up verifying.

Finally got cold enough to get some decent snow here in southern Wake and I thought we might be able to squeak out an inch after all. But then radar returns completely fell apart just as it was getting going. Sun trying to peak out now Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

Looks like after that reorganization of the eye that its drifting northwestward again.

I can agree with this assessment. NHC still shows the movement as of the 1pm update NW at 10 mph.

Just measured the satellite, it looks like its about 35 miles wide N-S.

Maybe a Day 3 high risk, but there has been several Highs Risks issued by the WPC this year. In fact they issued one as the remnants of Gordon combined with a cold front of the OH Valley this past weekend.

Pressure 10 mb higher too. Not sure what I think about that, although nearly all the models have been trending slightly weaker with the system which is good news.

Yes the landfall probability distribution seems reasonable to me. <10% chance of OTS, about 10% of moving into GA, 20% chance Charleston area, 60% from about MYB to MHC.

Wow, good call. I don't know how to post the image of today's run, but here's a link https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091012_ECENS_0-120h_large.png Spread does seem a little more reasonable with today's 12z than the one I had erroneously mentioned earlier.

Wow that is a lot of spread between one model's ensemble members. There are even a few GFS like runs in there too. Edit: That was yesterday's run. Spread does look more reasonable today.

Hug the big dog outlier until it falls in line with the rest of the models. Then when that model comes into line with everything else, its "falling apart".

What is the HRRR smoking? Its still giving close to 10 inches in the triangle.