...Southern New England...
By late afternoon, the cold front will surge off the Mid Atlantic
coast and begin affecting New England. Rapid cyclogenesis will be
occurring off the NJ/Long Island coast during the evening, resulting
in very strong low-level warm advection and impressive vertical
shear profiles. Several 12z CAM solutions indicate some convective
organization over parts of Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA.
Forecast soundings suggest a window of opportunity for surface-based
convection and perhaps a damaging wind gust or brief tornado in the