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Shades

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  1. Shades
    3KM HRRR early morning temperatures for Sunday.
  2. Shades
    I wonder if we go lower than forecast for tonight, it's currently 17 in NYC, forecast low of 13? I can see how we tick up a few degrees if we break into some sunshine later this afternoon, however it's also currently only 5 at Mount Pocono (about a 100 miles northwest from the bird's eye). Lots of talk on snow, but people who may be waiting to shovel snow tonight, or go out and about believing the storm is done for their Saturday night, would be putting themselves at risk; can imagine stranded or immovable vehicles, and with these temperatures, that would be foreboding. Frigid/hypothermia inducing temperatures is less sensible than snowfall. People could be putting their lives at risk. I hope the media and we do well to inform others as needed.
  3. Shades
    Regional composite/mosaic radar of northeast corridor: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Customizable for long animation loops and overlays.
  4. Shades
    Not your typical coastal storm in that the low pressure is elongated, less centralized at our latitude, which may be working in our favor for coastal areas. If this system were more consolidated, with a more definitive center (or core if you will - thinking of the tight eye-features many winter coastal nor'easters exhibit), then the precip would also likely be more wrapped-in, and the dynamics more compact. That being said, it's still in its maturing phase, for SNE.
  5. Shades
    RadarOmega
  6. Shades
    I can see how geographic orientation/slope and gradation is a factor in snow drifts and accumulation measurements. Here in Maspeth, Queens, near the embankment of the Ridgewood Plateau, on the north facing steep side, I'm experiencing higher totals than a mere half mile away in locations that are more level. This is very pronounced following the banding this morning which has come in with gustier winds, and wind driven-lateral snowfall. That being said, very hard to measure, 7"-9" in Maspeth, Queens. Still some ways to go...
  7. Shades
    A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 25F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around.
  8. Shades
    Height rises in the Canadian Maritimes also now being depicted = less progressive flow out on the Atlantic side; amplitude - let's see if this becomes a trend with future guidance.
  9. Shades
  10. Shades
    It's very light, akin to drizzle (snizzle, if you will). I've observed here in central Queens, the dendrites are miniscule and almost float like dust. It's precipitating from a low cloud base, as advection drizzle would.
  11. Shades
    Belmar NJ reporting snow on station OBS: ocean effect. Not picking up well on radar, however.
  12. Shades
    Marine layer beginning to encroach into the area, Jersey shore, Long Island, over top temperatures in the teens/single digits. Very anomalous when looking south and east from a weather observing stand-point. With these temperatures, you usually do not see low level clouds advancing onto the shore and inland, attributing to the outlook of this rapid change in airmasses within the next 12-24 hours.
  13. Shades
    FWIW There's a difference between model watching/prognosticating and tracking a storm. There is no storm atm. We are tracking models and it's important to establish that before making any calls involving absolutes. Just a word to the wise, and I do consider ya'll wise.
  14. Shades
    Chaos theory https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/chaos-theory
  15. Shades
    Idk about you guys, but I'd prefer a nickel to dime event that will stay on the untreated surfaces for at least a week, than a double digit snowfall that melts down within a week. Snow with staying-power usurps puddles. I'm so far enjoying Winter 2022 and wouldn't mind this past week to repeat.
  16. Shades
    It matters to city and town municipalities, management and operations. The general public can make their own decisions based on forecasts, however the city and towns follows certain procedures which are based/take guidance and make decisions on operations based on the criteria.
  17. Shades
    Six out of the nine ensembles depict 6-8" totals for parts of Long Island. The orientation of the totals reflects a max heading into southeast New England. If the coastal transfer occurs sooner I can imagine these totals extending into NJ, otherwise as others have stated there will be a gap in max snowfall totals between the primary coming from the Ohio Valley and coastal sections.
  18. Shades
    The TV-mets will have to be more judicious in their weather segments when describing the day as cool, and be more pedantic describing it as an average autumn day.
  19. Shades
    Observed lots of low-topped-surface based drizzle showers in the 5 boros, Long Island, this late afternoon. It's a good to day to calibrate your .pal files of your nexrad color tables on RadarOmega, Radarscope, etc. Lots of microscale boundaries with the sun poking through that are reestablishing the marine layer like a washing machine kept in rinse and spin. Mid-level clouds coming from the southwest with the jet are just adding to the special effects that otherwise would be a glum October day. From the skies, it was a very active day.
  20. Shades
    Emergency response measures to inform the public should not rely solely on media, the internet, for weather-related emergencies. If community-based sirens were utilized in a flash flood emergency, it would be hard to ignore or misinterpret. Many victims of the flooding, particularly in basement apartments were sleeping or otherwise tuned-out from information sources. A siren would elevate response and awareness to the danger and with appropriate guidance from other information sources, inform the public to move to higher ground as needed in life threatening measures.
  21. Shades
    It has to be a park because otherwise there's risk of development like any other location in Manhattan, any thing from a pizzeria to a skyscraper next door, or a subway below, tarnishing decades of records. Maybe they keep the overgrowth as an eco-barrier to better represent the climate prior to urban sprawl, and throw out the idea of a "new norm" *shrugs*
  22. Shades
    A very anomalous day with local boundaries galore from antecedent convection, an approaching vort max which seems to disrupt a very unstable airmass in a flow that isn't anything but sailing along. It's an atmospheric tug of war between the vorticity max to the west and the WAR to our east.
  23. Shades
    Landspout/week tornado in Maspeth Queens at 3:40-3:45PM, clean footage sans artifacts (mostly)...
  24. Shades
    So I'm in the process of putting the RAW video from the iphone into vimeo, may take some time and I have been shuffling with other obligations during this evening, remote work from home included. It was an interesting evening with the storms in Queens as they developed to backbuild and amid the boundaries at the surface, and apparently to cloud base there was enough for a spin-up. My location avoided much of the flooding just north of here however every cell has a base, and apparently I was right under one.
  25. Shades
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