usedtobe

at least they both have a thump, hope that is right

Look at the pivotal weather snow depth product, it usually provides a more realistic forecast with marginal temps.

I think the dewpoints tomorrow at 12Z are forecast to be in the upper teens west of the city and around 20 in the city so the cooling looks real especially if we get close to 09.25 " in 3 hours or so. That's a pretty good thump. Still, I'd only go with a coating to an inch aroudn the city and maybe 1 to 2 out west even though the models are showing the most precip south of us.

AO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfifAO_vs_nao_snow.gif.jfif

And that's the big problem with the pattern, the ridge position and the location of the max positive anomaly within it. It's not favorable for moving the trough in the west. Of course, the ensemble mean still could be wrong way out there in fantasy land but if it is mostly right and we don't get a hit in the cold window earlier in the month, we probably are screwed through mid January.

Looks to me like there is one window around the 7th or 8th with the cold and then troughiness approaching the east coast. I'd call it partially ajar, far from a perfect pattern but one that could give us something with luck despite the ;latest GFS run taking it away. Still it's probably a long shot but at least its a shot. If that window closes, we may have to wait until the second half of January as the Pac ridge is too far west to supply anything but a negative anomaly in the west. The EPS does build the ridge into ak but towards the end of the run starts pulling it back again. That's so far outside of the skillful range who really cares. This pattern suck if you are a winter wx expert that focuses on DC. I looked for the AO/4 inch snowstorm graph hoping I had it on a thumb drive but it's not. I have it on my old PC so I'll look for it down the road. I need to get all my old excell files on the new PC.

Yep a positive AO/NAO and EPO, not a very inviting look for snow around DC.

Plus, the spaghetti plots are all over the place so there is probably no skill at that time range even for the ensemble mean. My guess is there will be more amplitude somewhere but where makes a huge difference and some ensemble members like the operational, others are much different from it.

Whitened the top pf the car and some leaves. Sounds like i was minned compared even to Prince Frederick

I did work there but retired in 2004 though I worked for several years part time as a contractor til around 2009. I know some of the forecasters but no longer know the bosses. I don't even know the office phone number. I'm not sure how hiring works anymore.

.67" in the gauge at 9:30. Last night at around 2:30 or so there was a velocity couplet in Clavert county but i don't see any reports of a possible tornado. I did lose power for about an hour.

Here's the sounding from the NAM at DC at 00Z. Is it sleet or rain? it's right at that threshold and the sounding suggests folks just to the north and west will probably be getting sleet courtesy of PivotalWx.

The 06Z Euro has the 2m temp at 34 at 00Z at DCA, The 11Z HRRR has it at 39. I've not been a big fan of the HRRR. My question to my friends at EMC, are there any verification of the HRRR 2m temps and is there a high bias? oops I showed teh 23Z but the 00Z has the same temp.

Not for you, probably go with 1-3 for you and 2-4 in Winchester. I'm certainly not impressed for DC.

If you want icing, hope the precip stays on the light side, otherwise the freezing on contact will reolease too much latent heat to get you the icing you crave,

Glad I'm not at Sterling. I'd hang with the 06Z Euro as it's the NAM but wow. The last two runs have been mega. We've been NAMed.

If you need a crummy model to hang your hopes to look at the 12Z RGEM. I don't think it's right but will keep me looking at the GFS and Euro today.

I think it is a tad wetter for us than the 06Z. It's veery close to being really good and I'd take it.

It does looks like we are almost dealing with 3 streams of flow. The two more southerly features that interact and the northern stream flow over the northeast which needs to relax for us to get creamed. For the Canadian to be right we need all three to react the way we want. The more northern of the two southern system to help pick up the system that is now coming into CA and lift it towards us while the northern stream lifts enough to allow the southern system not get completely sheared under it. The GGEM does that and the parallel almost does it which allows it to give us snow. Quite a cut off between the 0.50" liquid line and the nothing. That makes for big forecast problems. I've written a CWG article on the event but from reading all the comment here, everyone seems to understand the uncertainty and how volatile the model changes could be from run to run.

My ranking PDI Feb 5-6 2010 Dec 2009 1996 blizzard Feb 1958 March 1958

I remember having a long running thread on the pattern. I know i had one for the Feb storm but think I also had one prior to this one as the pattern was a great one with the superens D+8 really pitting out a number of good storm analogs. However, the models kept the low suppressed until around day 3 when the ens mean had a 500 pattern almost identical to the DC 8" or greater composite. Shortly after that I think Don Sutherland started comparing it to the knickerbocker storm. I tried finding the thread from eastern but could only find my thread on the feb 5/6 storm not the Deec one.

I thought i interesting that the CIPPS analogs identified 1983 as the top analog for the dec 2009 storm and the feb 6th 2010 one. The 2010 storm would have had the dec event as a top analogs but it was not yet int he data base.

This is probably already somewhere in the thread but I had saved it and early in the week looked at it. Fun memories from eastern http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/221595-widespread-20-inch-plus-amounts-verified/

Pretty much for us, I think new england can get a big one without it.

Plus newbies need to know that the 850 temp is at around 5000 ft so the surface temps can often be above freezing when the 850 temps would indicate snow. Also, a warm layer during sleet events often develops above 850mb.