Kay

1 hour ago, kgottwald said:

Been overcast since 9:15 in Fairfax City despite a mostly sunny forecast.

I note the AFDs have a new format with "keypoints" rather than being organized strictly chronologically. Wonder why they decided to screw around with it.

1 hour ago, yoda said:

I actually like the new format.  I think its better.  Seems like its a new thing across the WFOs

I like the new format highlighting Key Messages, but I'm not sure how I feel about it not being necessarily chronological. They seem to have made the decision to start with most impactful within each forecast period in the discussion, regardless of chronology.

Hm. 

Here's the announcement, published Tues:

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/357-2025/PNSLWX/d70a3efb41e0bd9e7ac6a50c1cc432fc

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I miss last January. Here in the lowlands alone the South River the wetlands all froze solid. The tributaries froze up pretty nicely as well. I think it was 2018 we had a lot of ice in the Mid Bay region. 

I find when dealing with the cold/dry blues, frozen bay water helps lol. You too are on the frozen bay water lookout crew 

Low of 22.

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Low of 19

Swamp refroze quickly.

Tide is way out.

Always appreciate your tidal/ice obs. Hope to see more ice back sometime soon.

29 here by the bay with a brisk west wind. Sun not helping much, it is chilly

10 hours ago, goodwidp said:

Really enjoyed tonight's Profs and Pints: What We Know About Snow presentation tonight in Baltimore with Jeff Halverson of CWG. It's mostly basic-level discussion but still fascinating and highly recommended for fellow snow-lovers/weather-nerds. 

 

Nice! Love this vintage snow pic, and others like it. These girls look like real snow weenies, they have that crazed look of joy 

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The crux of that is that there are a handful of users here that have this all or nothing mentality for our snow, if we’re not getting a HECS then we’re getting nothing at all. Even though that isn’t our only way to get snow. They’re persistent enough to make that opinion the “loudest”.

Now without a HECS hitting climo is an uphill climb but a complete dead ratter when the metros had their snowiest December in nearly a decade seems to be a bit presumptuous…

I totally agree. I see you out there fighting the fight. My joke fell flat. It's an uphill battle, man, those are indeed the "loudest", as you say, and always draw the most attn. I haven't given up on this winter no f-in way.

I'll see you all later. Stone cold sober here. Just joking around. Wrong thread though!

Just now, bncho said:

What message are you trying to convey?

I mean: He's kind of surly. But he really is a person who hates negativity. Get it?

(and he seems to really hate complaining, and hopelessness about snow, He and I are really not that different

It's humor, @TSSN+

I'll get my coat.

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Panic room already exists

I've come to realize Jenkins is the most relentlessly optimistic poster we have. Polices tf out of all negativity. Has declared war on the futility thread! a thread I forgot existed but am now reminded of thrice daily by Jenkins. Here I thought I was annoyed by complaining! Kryptonite to Jenkins. Beware, this is a world class hopeful, idealistic, anything-is-possible person, a pure soul, and surly about it!

Squalling here but not much frozen, a few flakes mixed in, poor rates. 44

This is still pinned. Idk it could be a generic hoping to see a squall thread 

.80"

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

A significant portion of it does.

No. We have...big personalities that make it seem like that. Because everyone chats about what BPs say and think. By the numbers, I'll bet you actual money the majority in the forum are not "all or nothing", which is the expression you used.

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I brought this up the other day but this forum has a huge “all or nothing” mentality problem.

It's really not the whole forum. 

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

I want to say I saw this in an Eric Webb X post that he did a week-ish ago. He mentioned 2014 and -EPO/+TNH and how it's a pattern that's hard to predict, probably excavated it from the back of my mind.

Makes sense.

Just now, bncho said:

It's all me, no AI. I'm a dumbass but I've been here for over a year so I should be learning something lol

Thank you. You seriously are as much a good sport as you are smart.

43 minutes ago, bncho said:

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

OK, I'll be the arsehole...bncho, is this all you and zero AI? You are obviously super bright and a quick learner, either way. And a good sport, so I hope you'll forgive my asking.

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Very close for 150+ hours,  changes will happen.  We’re in the game. 

The upshot. The takeaway. The deal.

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Noticed a couple of wife's Crocus bulbs 'peeking' on the south side of house today. Sheesh. 

Iris, here.  Gotta hand it to em I guess for being survivors. Annoying though, way too eager to LIVE

57. Getting some things done outside and it is noice.

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

1) January 2025, had snow on the ground nearly the whole month and had a couple “snow on snow” events.

2) October 29, the coastal storm that dumped a decent amount of rain. First rain event since late summer that didn’t have a series of walk backs in the lead up.

It was these two for me. The first was amazing. I absolutely loved the sustained snopamine. Snow cover weenie through and through. The second event was impactful in terms of coastal flooding in the bay.

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

I saw a flock of geese flying north. 

They were coming to mby

21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Still only 39 today was supposed to hit 50

I don't have stats but feels like mby has struggled to reach forecast highs a lot this season.

41 now. Just noticed forecast high I saw this a.m. of 46 has been shaved back to 44.

42 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm not sure which is worse. Complaining about no snow or complaining about the complainers.

A timeless question. Both can be annoying (and I have done both) but are fine, and normal weenie fare, in smaller doses. But. Factoring in post volume? imo the first is worse.