Kay

Just now, clskinsfan said:

No way anyone is panicking about the HRRR. And even still it has a 2-5 storm for everyone. 

I in no way meant to suggest anyone is panicking. Just seeing the letters hrrr was enough to  make  me remember this awesome post. I said I wasn't posting about the system

On 2/12/2024 at 4:39 PM, high risk said:

Goddamnit, y'all.     I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts.    

I'm not really posting this about this system, but I was reminded of it and have to give it another moment in the spotlight ...one of the best posts of the winter perhaps ever

I definitely can't keep the latest thread protocols straight and would like to thank those who are doing so for their service.

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I call BS on the Ballanger Creek total. No way they got close to Thurmont or Emmitsburg. I’m north of them and didn’t even have that much. Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure. 

50 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL

The suffering of mid-Atlantic snow weenies was already dire. How are we supposed to endure State Highway Snow Measurement. It's just cruel.

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

Yeah the north end of the city up near 95 is over 400’. My house is at 30’ lmao

I guess it might've been a nice Susquehanna State Park mini-chase. But it never occurred to me/am working.

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

CoNgRaTs NY!!

Seriously, man. Read the room as far as the NY obs... I'm one of the chillest people here and even I'm a bit salty today

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

You can use T if snow fell then melted on contact. You don't need stickage for a Trace.

I was just having that Hmmm-emoji afterthought...been a while since I had to contemplate, a T it is, thanks...haha

35 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I never measured, and half of it was probably gone by the time I could've measured.  Based on a 6AM look out the window, I'll go with 1".  Just slush on hard surfaces.  Pretty crappy event here.  No surprise.

 

8.5" for the year.  Lowest in the region I'm certain. 

This may be the saddest report of 1" snow I've ever seen

Can't really manage to report a T today. I'm at 8" seasonally. Coastal plain lyfe tho

48 minutes ago, T. August said:

This event was a little heartbreaking for me. Looks like the line was at 150’. I could literally watch the snow depth drop off on the way home. Within the city limits of Havre de Grace there are spots with 2”+.

Wow.

All snowtv, no stickage here.

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

MoCo / HoCo deathband setting up on stage now? 

So cool that they're still touring

Lost the rates and it's light snow/white rain here. No accums.

Just flipped to light-mod snow here by the bay. For the moment. Huge flakes. 34

51 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We need our version of General Patton to whip these soldiers into shape!  Or General McAuliffe, saying "NUTS!" to the Germans asking him to surrender at Bastogne.

General Longwave Pattern

31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Added one to your post

Of course! I post. And fit so many other criteria.

But the important thing is that we blame each other. So you can, and probably should, blame me. But no one should blame themselves! The rage must be directed outward.

Friends. If the epic advertised patterns don't deliver, the important thing? Is that we blame each other. VICIOUSLY. I'm keeping a list of who to blame:

-optimists

-skeptics

-realists

-debs

-people who start threads

-people who refuse to start threads

-people who protest threads

-people who post

-lurkers

-all people with any interest in weather both on and off this forum

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Hahaha! Bizarre Pivotal snow map! 

trippy

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

(moved from obs thread)

Uncovered a hibernating bat while loading firewood on Saturday.  It was yawning a lot, and I was about done for now, so covered it back up, lest the dog start chasing it.

This is about the 3rd time this has happened, but probably the largest bat.

 

Amazing!

42 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm opening the 2024 thread in the next week or two. I know you're all ready to plant, mow, and harvest!

Should this be a Garden, Lawn, Other Green Stuff and Nature thread (either by title or just understood)? Like, both flora and fauna?

By pure coincidence I ran across this recently...I actually printed it what a weenie

50 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The crocus house in our neighborhood is ready to bloom

Iris poking up

Have been watching a beautiful pair of common ravens foraging and exploring and hanging out in a group of tall trees IMBY/neighborBY this afternoon. I know they aren't rare but not too common IMBY that I've seen. Unlike black vultures. which  I thought they were for a sec. I wish it were cold and snowing, obvs, but it is a nice day. Dry ground...weird.

11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This thread needs a resident therapist 

May I make a recommendation?

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm making popcorn to see who cracks first on the potential pattern change. Easy money is on Ji but don't underestimate someone like Heisy or Terpeast getting jumpy 

10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

New month, new thread. Please pin.

Did your captors make you post this?

Mods I am concerned this is a cry for help.

Anyone else have this weird thing where "January 31" triggers a mistaken feeling of it being New Year's again? Like just for a second, when you hear or see the date, it's...here we go, a new year... No? Ok, thanks, carry on.

Lamar is a huge Mozart fan

Not posting this to make a point or a case, mainly I just enjoyed "sneaky look" appearing in an AFD

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing will persist over the Northeast CONUS much of next week as ridging over the Intermountain West is slowly shunted eastward. Within the eastern trough, a stout ULL will pivot from the Great Lakes toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday. With surface high pressure persisting over New England, there may be enough cold air in play for at least some of the precipitation to fall as snow east of the mountains (with all snow over the higher terrain anticipated). The GFS has been the most amplified with this wave, with the 27/00Z run showing an extended period of precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic. Other guidance is generally less bullish, but has the same overall pattern.

As is typically the case, uncertainty looms surrounding this system for the middle of next week. That`s because (1) the upper-level low will be at least partially cutoff, and the behavior of such lows can be erratic and hard to predict even a couple days in advance; (2) the area this system is coming from has a bit less observational data for the models to ingest; and (3) temperatures east of the mountains will be marginal, casting doubt on precipitation type.

All-in-all, the system has a bit of a sneaky look to it, and bears close monitoring. But, at least from a climatological standpoint, it is not the traditional pattern that brings significant (i.e. warning- level) snow to the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic.

Beyond that, models diverge quite a bit. This is because they are having trouble resolving a quasi-omega block developing over eastern NOAM during the latter half of next week. Temperature/precipitation forecasts are both of low confidence later next week as a result.

Morning low of 51. Steady 51-52 midnight-present.