Kay

lwx 9:19 pm AFD/obs

ETA forgot to add 1.7" here so far

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

989 mb low pressure center is located not too far from Cape
Fear NC. Latest NAM has the best initialization in terms of
position and magnitude, the GFS is not too far off, while Euro
is more than 100 miles off with its position. So far, up to 1.32
inches of rain have fallen at Leonardtown MD (St. Mary`s
County) with up to 0.6 inch per hour rainfall rates being
observed at several locations. Rain will continue to pivot
north and west of the low pressure center overnight. Southern
MD will see a brief lull in intensity in the next couple hours,
but another batch of moderate/heavy rain currently over
northeastern NC will move in overnight. Latest guidance continue
to indicate areas east of I-95, particularly southern MD will
see the heaviest rain. Risk of flooding rainfall will continue
overnight until the rain begins to exit around daybreak Monday.

Wind Advisories were issued earlier for the potential for 40kt
gust with the initial surge of winds behind exiting low
pressure. Strongest winds are likely between 12Z-18Z before they
start diminishing during the mid-late afternoon.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Gotta love the literal snow-globe in front.

I also took a long walk today. Do like Dec to be cold (disclaimer) but beautiful out.

Finally posting my long unawaited winter 2023-24 Mid-Atlantic forecast. I'm only posting the synopsis here, but that's ok because the full outlook is identical.

Winter 2023-24 Forecast:

Sooner or later we're gonna time something right.

Maybe more than once.

But maybe not.

Snowfall: double digits at all 3 major airports (10-40")

Low of 23. Some areas of skim ice on the river this morning

likewise low of 24 and frosty

before I forget

12/7: T

Halfway to last year's total (T x2)

5 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

It was enough to make a snowman and sled! Took advantage of the BS school delay and had some fun. Looking at my cameras, looked like we got about the same here in Ellicott City that we got out at Deep creek. 

strong work!

I woke up a few times and looked. May have snowed here but if so I missed it. Congrats to all who got snow! I love seeing the pics. Gorgeous potatoes. Hooray for accumulating snow in our sub!

I just hit 1" rain too. Still cosy and warm at 58

Good luck, farther wester and more elevated friends. Rooting for you.

.4" rain. It's a balmy 60 degrees but so gloomy I felt the need to roast potatoes anyway

Rapidly thickening fog over the waters as the rain approaches. 52

Deck/car/rooftopper. Even some areas of grass* whitened up.

*fallen leaves helping with surface area

Dusting

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We smoked so much cirrus out in Cross Junction I failed a drug test. We didn't get a single flake out there.  Remember driving into town the next morning and hit snow dusting at the Virginia Farm Market.  About 2 inches at our office in Kernstown.   Went over to my place in Front Royal that evening and there was over 4" on the ground.  Unreal.

good one

I couldn't post at the time but snow shower in Fells Pt right on the water around noonish. Possibly snow mixed...? I also couldn't run to a window to get a good look. Snow weenie torment lol. First flakes I've seen this winter.

Fog

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”

Exactly. We collectively wrote off December

0.6" here too

bump

BWI: 27

DCA: 19

IAD: 30

RIC: 11

SBY: 12

I panic every time I see the words "warm nose". Is that a hidden menu option in the gold package or do I need the Platinum quadruple play package?

Low of  22

Most trees are bare around here, with a few final gasps

Shot from Thanksgiving day. Find the bald eagle..I didn't notice