You kinda answered your own question, we will wet bulb down, but the real answer is to look upstairs, look at the surface temp at DCA in this sounding from DCA, looks to be below 32 at anything above 1000mb. Heavy rates and you get a beat down, light rates and it’s snow/rain or rain. Your concerns are all valid though, we have seen many a marginal situations bust, and a few boom. Learn to read soundings and skew-t charts, will be super helpful!