wolfie09

Happy thanksgiving all !!! Full sunshine here , currently 7°.. Make it end lol Wpc Day 6

The euro has also been trending colder with the synoptic system, really hammers the Dacks/Eastern Ny and interior New england..

Some deeper cold on the euro..Pretty much remained unchanged from 12z, verbatim..

One of those rare event were it's colder to the south then to the north.. You can see by the barbs its w/wsw on this particular run..

Yea i was just looking at that, gfs shows a decent amount of rain.. Not much cold to tap from the north.. Not that i necessarily believe the gfs when it comes to 2m temps..

If tonight's runs are any indication , Erie has more potential Ontario..

The evolution/track of the synoptic system will obviously determine who gets what.. Probably take several more days to start having an idea..

kbuf On Tuesday this upper level trough will become negatively tilted, and a new surface low will emerge to the lee of the Appalachians. This new surface low will bring impacts along the east coast, with lingering surface troughing back across WNY continuing the threat for showers...of which most will be snow as much colder air aloft wraps across the Eastern Great Lakes. This colder air, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping to -10 to -12C...will likely yield bands of lake effect snow...which at this time may be downwind of the Great Lakes on a westerly flow. However there is still some model differences in the position of the upper level low and where it forms a cut off...that will influence the surface wind direction. Regardless there will be chances for lake effect snow through the end of the period with temperatures again returning to below normal, with highs Wednesday possibly remaining below freezing.

Potential is obviously there, but much can go wrong from now till then lol

Euro looks terrific, for "some" , especially the tug ...Starting late monday night lasting into wed morning..

Some "Mexico bay" enhancement so to speak..On a NW-NNW trajectory .. I have been noticing this show up for the last day or so , big fluff factor, gonna be interesting later this evening/overnight..Radar wont look great but could be snowing decent..(includes some falling precip, especially north)

For S&G

Picked up 1" from the band, winds starting to pick up creating blizzard like conditions.. "Finished" with 5.5", bringing me to a little over 2 feet on the young season with another 9 days left to pile on before November comes to an end..

Good signal for some Lake effect/enhancement day 6-8..

Tonight will become bitterly cold with lingering lake effect snow showers. 850mb temperatures will fall to around -20C, but moisture will be very limited. As a result, QPF consensus of model guidance is limited, with the greatest amounts south of Lake Ontario where there is the longest fetch and potentially brief a Georgian Bay connection. Additional snowfall amounts should mainly be light, but considering the fluff factor localized accumulations of a few inches cannot be ruled out even though many areas will remain snow- free. Cooling will mainly be through advection with lingering lake effect clouds, but even so temperatures will fall into the single digits to mid-teens. A late clearing should allow for even lower temperatures east of Lake Ontario where some below zero readings are possible. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long awaited warm-up will arrive this weekend with several days of near or a little above normal temperatures as the pattern across North America temporarily re-aligns, with a trough focusing on the Northern Plains and forcing downstream height rises across the east. A deep shortwave will cross the region Saturday and Saturday night on the leading edge of the warm-up, producing periods of showers. Warm advection ramps up well ahead of the precip, so this should be all rain by the time it arrives later Saturday morning. The rain will taper off from west to east later Saturday night and Sunday morning as the system moves into New England. Weak high pressure will then bring a mainly dry Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday, with overnight lows Saturday night staying above freezing. Another potent Pacific shortwave will emerge onto the Central Plains by early Sunday morning, with the resulting system moving into the Ohio valley and eastern Great Lakes by Monday. This will bring increasing rain chances to our region later Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will continue to be warm enough through Monday to support all rain at the surface. This system is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF, and most of their ensembles, to evolve into a closed low over the Northeast States By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This will keep unsettled weather across our region, with colder air filtering back into the Great Lakes and forcing rain to mix with and change to wet snow by later Monday night and Tuesday.

As alluded to earlier, a little spike in temps ahead of the front.. Most of the county was sitting in the 20’s a few hours ago..

Right in the thick of the band, pouring snow, some graupel mixing in from time to time.. May be able to squeeze out a 1/2’ total with some scraps tonight..

Snow Squall Warning * Until 1015 AM EST. * At 916 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Southwick Beach State Park to near Hamlin Beach State Park, moving south at 20 mph. HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 35 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 40. This also includes State Route 104, and portions of the Rochester metropolitan area. Locations impacted include... Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Oswego, Fulton, Brockport, East Rochester, Hilton and Webster

SR Guidance did show a spike in temperatures ahead of the cold front.. picked up 4.5”so far, snow starting to pick up again, kind of a broken up squall line here..

Time to hit the sack.. A little over 3” down, still snowing..

Still snowing moderately, nearing 2”..

Long shot but who knows when it comes to the lake..haha

One positive is it’s extremely fluffy snow, more accumulation in 5 min then I’ve seen all day lol