wolfie09

Kbuf The aforementioned shortwave trough will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday night while a steady state surface low approaches the Western Southern Tier. There are differences in the model track of the surface low as we move into Monday. The 18z GFS takes it northwest of Buffalo while the 12z ECMWF moves it across Western NY and extends it into the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS solution would likely allow more rain and warmer temperatures where the ECMWF would suppress most of the moisture to the south and across the Mid- Atlantic region. Rainfall amounts will average a quarter inch before cold air arrives Monday evening. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 40`s Monday. Cold air advection will quickly begin quickly behind the departing surface low and rain will transition to snow showers Monday night. Winds will increase ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon with south-southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph especially northeast of the lakes. A strong westerly flow will persist Monday night with 850 temperatures falling to -12C across Lake Erie and -7C across Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning. This will support lake effect snow showers east of the lakes by Tuesday morning. An expansive upper-level trough will persist across much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through mid-week. This will result in cold, westerly flow across the region and promote a period of lake effect snow. The coldest air will likely arrive after a shortwave trough tracks from the western Great Lakes and to the Ohio Valley. Temperatures at 850mb will average between -15 to -10 Wednesday into Thursday. This combined with synoptic moisture and enhanced lift will lead to the potential for significant, warning level accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau and western Southern Tier. Temperatures will run well below normal with daytime highs in the 30`s Tuesday-Thursday and nighttime lows in the 20`s. This averages ten degrees below normal for the last week of November.

Gfs just catching up to what the FV3 has been showing for 3 straight days.. God help us all when this becomes the regular gfs, one heck of a model..lol

Still Looks pretty good to me.. Top 18z, bottom 12z

Still TBD Matt..Way to early..Our double barrel synoptic system is still 3000 miles away.. Have to wait till to the higher rez models to get into range for low level wind and precip...

2002-2003 was the definition of "dink and dunk" KFzy with 230" and yet only 1 notable Les events..(12+) Snowed 30 of the 31 days in jan with a max of 6" Feb was a much better month with 3 events of at least 8" ...The rest of the month was filled with trace-3"

Canadian is similar to the euro with a westerly-west north westerly flow..

lol WNW/NW year U picked up 90% of your snowfall from a synoptic event.. The only WNW event busted lol

If this was true WNW i would think KFZY would be in the heart of the band not the southern fringes..

Kinda starts out that way.. Prob 280 vector, moving to 270 and then 260ish.. Obviously different wind directions off both lakes..

Majority see at least something from the gfs and Fv3 .. Mean wind direction is looking wsw at the moment imo..

Eps mean 2m temps for fulton

This is what happened lol

Euro with a little quicker transfer and thus a little colder with more moisture.. NW flow on the backside..

Looks like the potential for a little more then a few inches on the tug lol And that's coming from a global model.. Juts matters which way the wind blows..

Gfs is game for a long lasting lake effect event..

Temps are dropping below 0, even in the lower elevations, forecast low was -1..

Tug gets annihilated on the FV3 Gfs now showing mostly a WSW flow.. Fv3 and euro are more westerly-WSW Icon mostly SW flow..

Models are beginning to hone in on late Tuesday as the period when bands of LES will form to the east or east-northeast of the Lakes as 850 hPa temperatures plummet to around -8 to -10C. A shortwave passing through will likely oscillate the bands some Tuesday night as they intensify, with activity then settling southeast of the Lakes Wednesday. Off Lake Ontario this activity of lake effect snow may even clip the Rochester area as winds veer to northwesterly. This northwest flow will maintain cold air through the end of the period with lake effect snow diminishing as drier air filters into the lower levels. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near the freezing mark.

Monday Night Rain showers likely before midnight, then rain and snow showers likely between midnight and 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Snow showers. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Euro remaining consistent, 48 hours of W/WSW flow..

Gfs has it entering the Pac NW tomorrow night..

Yeah, Gfs a little colder like last night's euro.. Unfortunately the system off the coast takes to long to get going, at least in terms of synoptic precip..