wolfie09

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the system will transition into a lake effect snow event in favored westerly flow areas. Lake effect parameters appear to be improving during this period. Flow is expected to become well aligned from the west and this could set up nice plumes of lake snow east of both lakes. A little early to pin down exact amounts, but a significant lake event is possible during this time. A large closed low will be tracking across the Northeast Wednesday-Thursday night. A westerly flow is likely Wednesday with lake effect snow showers ongoing east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will likely bring significant snowfall accumulations across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Southern Erie and Wyoming counties as well as the Tug Hill Plateau.

Bro WTF are you looking at.. The Nam give the tug 12-18 " by WED morning.. The Nam only goes out 84 hours till WED morning.. NW flow has not even started yet!! While cold temperatures and synoptic moisture stay in place into Thursday, a passing surface trough will likely cause winds to become more northwesterly and lake effect bands to shift south and become multiple bands especially across Lake Erie.

Nam starting to get into better range.. West flow all day tues into wed morning when flow start to turn NW..

Up until WED morning..

Euro shows how volatile the situation is.. The low near the lakes is probably about 50 miles different then 12z and its predominantly wnw/nw flow.. Gfs still keeps everything north, even for me.. I believe the bands will move around enough to give everyone in oswego county their share.. Lot still to be determined, stay tuned..

Still rain but yesterday this was pegged in minnesota I counted about 7 storms over the next 14 days on the gfs, active to say the least, rain or snow..

Another system that has been popping up on models..

Look at the GFS Temps start to warm when they go NW and they don’t cool down overnight..

Temps don’t go above freezing until the band goes WNW lol look how it’s warmer to the north, once wind shift out of the north we actually warm..

That’s cold enough for lake effect in late November.. With plenty of synoptic moisture..

That hasn’t stopped the NWS lol The ECMWF has been the more climatologically realistic looking of the packages. The 00z guidance from both models show much more run to run consistency with the ECMWF while the GFS is starting to `come around` to the ECMWF solution. This makes sense climatologically..and also due to the fact that the ECMWF has notably better assimilation of initial data than its counterpart

Euro has surface temps in the single digits-teens pre storm..

Definitely fits the pattern we have been in.. Another dual low scenario.. This is supposed to be our “warm up”

It’s a little comical but with the greatest anomalies to the south and south west, we actually warm up from a northerly wind lol 850 mb temps just to the south are -10c and -6c north.. Enjoy that one day warm up lol From afar it’s lower 40’s if that, verbatim..

Euro has Lake effect starting late monday night, would think watches will be issued tomorrow if necessary..

And the German, which if i'm not mistaking is a littler higher rez then some of the other global models.. Mainly a straight west wind..

Gfs says fook you all.. Mainly sw/wsw flow, off Ontario..

Fv3 from earlier..

A view for all..

Euro is a huge hit for the county, nearly 2" imby Eventually goes WNW/NW and nails the southern zones.. My lattitude may finally come into play as i'm just SE of Richland, 4 miles NW of Altmar..

Yup, carol is seeing feet lol

Euro was a little "whiter" with the synoptic system.. kbgm One point of uncertainty, is that ECMWF has slowed down the exit of the system Monday, with upper low opening and getting pulled back somewhat towards a larger upper low descending into the western Great Lakes. This could mean a period of rain changing to wet snow across the northern zones Monday night, before the already-expected transition to a lake effect snow regime Tuesday through Thursday. Monday Rain before 5pm, then rain and snow. High near 42. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Monday Night Snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.