wolfie09

This part of the event not so fun lol

It's a pretty nice snowfall for all, IF it accumulates sufficiently..

NWS must be using these models.. They are the only 2 models that bring a region wide moderate-heavy snow event.. !2z coming out now, lets see how consistent it is..

NWS still calling this a west event lol Up to a foot overnight tues night, where? They refuse to give in to current modeling ..

All I’m hearing is “higher elevations “ yet they have 12”-18” Down to parish.. THURSDAY/... Complex forecast this period. Consolidated surface low near the New England coast Tuesday will rotate slowly into northern New England by Wednesday. On the western side of the low, colder air will build into the area during the day Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures just cold enough to support snow, especially across the higher terrain. Favorable moisture profiles, a westerly fetch and upsloping will maintain steadier snows east of the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Snow ratio should be rather inefficient for accumulating snows across lower elevations, with better ratios across the hills south and east of Buffalo and over the Tug Hill. Expect 2-3 inches of snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie with 3-5 inches possible on the Tug Hill. Elsewhere, snow showers should only accumulate an inch or so. Tuesday night into Wednesday night, thermal profiles do not change all that much with 850 mb temperatures remaining around -8C. Boundary layer cooling improves, but it continues to look like a combination snow event having both a synoptic and lake effect component with some lake and orographic enhancement. Upslope and lake components will play a big role with significantly more snow expected across higher terrain although there should be some snow accumulation in all areas. Lake enhancement could bring locally high amounts east of the lakes during this time. These areas could see localized amounts of up to a foot. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect east of Lake Ontario. Greater forecast confidence has been gained to issue a Winter Storm Watch east of Lake Erie. Lake effect snow will continue Wednesday night, but snowfall rates will diminish. Several inches of new snowfall will be possible across higher terrain due to upsloping. Snow showers will then linger Thursday, with only light additional accumulation expected. This long-term snow event beginning late tonight and lasting into Wednesday night will likely produce some fairly impressive storm totals. Due to the marginal thermal profiles, the greatest amounts should be across higher terrain, but accumulating snows are likely just about everywhere.

Haha All that talk about warm air hasn’t bothered the NWS..lol Now I want my 12-18”

On the surface it doesn’t look terrible, I still think the model is still trying to spit out snow from the coastal, east of 81..

Keep in mind it's a long duration event, pretty much from tuesday morning until thurday morning.. So with light precip rates and temps just above freezing, probably not going to accumulate much.. OH well, always next one

Yeah, agreed.. Looking much better off erie..Colder air is to our south...

Could the GFS be to warm ?, Sure, but verbatim it's rain..

Where do u see that? U have a better shot at a flood watch then WSW on the GFS.. The min temp on the GFS is 36 degrees through the entire event..

And the Rgem agrees, NWS will be making some big changes next updates , look at those surface temps

I guess u shouldn't go against the euro lol Clear trend by both Nam Products, majority NW/WNW.. 3k nam looks Blah with light precip and marginal temps.. We went from a strong West-WSW band to some weak NW crap lol I guess at least everyone can join in the fun.. 12k Nam would be a nice median for everyone..

Fv3 kinda showing what the nws was talking about.. Region wide light snow with embedded squalls corresponding with wind direction..

Probably see more snow from the synoptic system then lake effect according to many of the ensemble members.. Biggest beneficiary is the hills south of Syracuse..

Yup, without a single strong band we may have trouble accumulating.. Many may go just above freezing with "lighter" precip rates..

Wsw issued, 8”-16” on the tug..

So 850 mb temps that were -8 to -10c are now-5c to -7c , thanks to the wind out of the north..

Maybe the euro scores a coup.. Its the only model with NW all day Tuesday.. West off Erie, NW off Ontario, verbatim..

I will also add that the CMC has the highest resolution of any global model at 25km, not the best model to use in this situation, when it comes to enhancement/les..

Dude i'm just fooking around with Dave since he wants to "poo poo" this event every single day.. So he tries to take the fun out for everybody.. i agree this will go NW and give everyone a nice dose of snow..

Rain

Enjoy your flurries Dave