wolfie09

On a positive note, we should all at least see some accumulation on wed/thurs.. Wednesday Snow showers likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Long range is obviously a crap shoot.. But we don't wanna lose out on all of december lol Looking farther ahead, evidence is mounting in the extended range guidance that the cold pattern we have been in most of the time the past 6 weeks may be breaking down. A strong negative height anomaly will develop over the western Aleutians, supporting the strengthening and eastward extension of the East Asian Jet. This change in the Pacific is likely being driven, at least partially, by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is forecast to orbit from phase 2 to phase 4 on the Wheeler phase/space plot. The pattern change over the North Pacific will de-amplify the pattern across North America, with westerly zonal flow allowing mild Pacific air to flood east across the nation by around December 11-12. At the same time, changes in blocking at high latitudes will force the true cold air to retreat all the way northward into the Canadian Archipelago and to the Asian side of the North Pole. These pattern changes may bring an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures through the middle of December.

Congrats interior Southeast.. Probably catch ksyr by mid month

Right in carol"s wheelhouse..

A direct west 270 flow is actually one of the hardest ones to get lol But has the strongest winds/longest fetch..And tends to be maintained longer.. Granted depending on the width of the band depends who gets what..I think 260-280 can work for the most part, at least here..

Lucky for November or we would be well below avg the way the next 2 weeks look lol Especially given December is a big month east of the Lake.. The Next event is being shown most WSW-SW, not many win in here on that flow..(off ontario) Best shot of significant snow was pre clipper/front, once that front passes the band will fly south and break up..

Kbuf In regards to precipitation...the main concern will be two rounds of lake snow that could lead to significant accumulations... particularly in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. This could result in winter weather headlines (advisories/warnings)...so stay tuned. Breaking this down on a day to day basis... As we open this period Wednesday night...weak mid level ridging and the nose of its associated sfc high will push across the region Wednesday night. This should encourage fair dry weather over much of the forecast area...however a deep westerly flow of moderately cold air will support lake snows east of both lakes. While the flow will start to back during the overnight hours...multiple bands of lake snow will likely generate some accumulation over the majority of the Southern Tier with a cap around 8k ft likely allowing moderate to heavy snow within a single plume of producing problematic snow near the Tug Hill. On Thursday...a robust shortwave will dig across the Upper Mid West and push a cold front to southern Ontario. This will help to establish a short lived warm advective pattern within a backing steering flow over our region. The on going lake snows will push north towards Buffalo and Watertown while weakening as the cap should drop to around 5k ft. Nevertheless...some accumulations can probably be expected...especially over Jefferson county and northern parts of Lewis county. The remainder of the region may see a stray snow shower or flurry...but nothing more. The aforementioned strong shortwave and sfc cold front will plow across our forecast area Thursday night...likely before midnight. This will result in some snow showers across the region that could be briefly accompanied by some gusty winds and greatly reduced visibilities. During the second half of the night...lake snows will become re-established east of both lakes. Once again...a single plume could target the Tug Hill region with the likelihood that the band will be enhanced by an upstream connection to Lake Huron. Multiple bands will be found east of Lake Erie. As the base of the overlying mid level trough moves across the region on Friday...a large sfc high will make its way across the Upper Mid West. This will encourage the steering flow to veer more to the west Northwest...likely pushing the lake snows a little further south from the previous night. The surface high will slowly ease across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday...gradually lowering the cap in the process which will bring an end to the lake snows southeast of both lakes

A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will approach Wednesday and cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday evening. Boundary layer flow will become more westerly and better aligned ahead of this trough, with moisture and instability also improving. This may allow for more organized lake snows east of the lakes. A ridge may force the lake snow to weaken by Thursday. Another, potentially stronger clipper shortwave will move through the Great Lakes Thursday night. This may produce a few snow showers areawide. Lake effect snow would likely become better organized again northeast of the lakes along the clipper cold front, then settle into areas east of the lakes again by Friday.

Here was the 18z gfs.. Winds turn SW ahead of the clipper, but will flip w-wnw as it passes

Not so sure about that haha We did luck out with the banding this week but carol has a very important element I do not, elevation.. Everything here is pure lake.. She gets lake and upslope lol

Location location location Every year is different.. KFZY is usually the standard for the southern part of the county.. They have a total “only” around 22” after adding the last few days..

According to that map I have a deeper snow pack then carol

This was as of this morning.. Could of lost the rest of their snow during the day or an error..

There is high confidence that we will experience below normal temperatures through...and beyond (second weekend of Dec)... this forecast period. The bulk of the GFS ensemble members as well as the ECMWF deterministic run agree on a longwave trough remaining parked over the eastern half of the continent...with a generous number of solutions including a southward push of the notorious polar vortex to at least 60N as we move towards mid month. The somewhat highly amplified pattern is consistent with the ongoing weak El Nino. In terms of precipitation...the main concern during this period will be a relatively long period where a west to northwest flow could support headline worthy lake snows in the typical snowbelts

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... This time period in general looks to be active, but with no indications at any large precip. events. This is the result of a large (longitudinal) low amplitude upper level trough over the northern half of the US. This trough will provide periodic bouts of synoptic moisture and combined with cold 850Ts there will be the potential for on and off lake effect snow through this time period. There is some indications that a better lake effect setup will occur for Wednesday into Thursday, and as we get closer to that time, model agreement should become better aligned.

The euro tried lol

Final snow tally’s in Oswego county (minus altmar) we need more spotters lol

Keep this over us most of the day and we probably see a couple/few more inches ..lol Eastern Altmar approaching 40” in November..

Pulaski semi redeemed itself lol Bennitts bridge on the eastern side of town has 15” since the event started and still snowing..

Snow just won’t end lol Coming down decent, still seems to be accumulating..

I already have my time of interest lol

Really coming down now, pleasantly surprised..

So close yet so far lol

This is what carol saw last December lmao Thats an entire year in Fulton..