wolfie09

I would give it about those odds..

One in a million shot? Lol

Some nice improvements on the NAM.. Take it fwiw..

Picked up a thick coating today.. I’m down in the southern part of the county, it’s snowing pretty good.. The 18z euro was very similar to 12z regarding wed-fri.. Another perk of weather models.com, 6/18z Euro..

It will be a quick hitter but could pack a punch.. Clear cave by the euro as the gfs has been showing this for a couple days now..

Still a solid covering especially in the wooded area's of my property, no grass showing, yet.. As of this morning..

They have had only piles for a few days now lol My girl is the assistant manager at RAC, so i'm in pulaski quiet often for one thing or another.. I'm barely hanging on thanks to the fog machine someone set off last night.. Thought i was gonna get a way with a few inches, not so lucky..

Euro looking a little better at 12z.. Similar to the gfs in a 4"-6" event..

What else would it be HAHA I had to cut some time off, for sure lol

I’ll wait and see what the SR models have to say, meso models dominated last event..That’s what they are here for.. The NAM is a “shorter range “ model but it’s also not a “high” Rez model at 12km, the euro is 9km lol

Great tool if your looking to resize images, videos, gif etc.. Also turn videos into GIF as you can see by my sig.. Been playing around with it for about a week, really enjoying it so far.. https://ezgif.com/resize

Kbuf Wednesday and Wednesday night westerly flow will become better aligned across both lakes. Background synoptic scale moisture will improve, and lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to 7-8k feet. While not ideal, the lake effect parameters will be sufficient to support at least some accumulations east of the lakes. Off Lake Erie, there may be a few inches of accumulation across the higher terrain east of the lake on Wednesday. Wednesday night the band of snow will move a little farther north towards the Buffalo Southtowns, but appears likely to weaken with mid level drying and some increase in shear. Accumulations Wednesday night look to be very light. Off Lake Ontario, lake effect snow will increase late Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. West or WSW flow will target the northern portion of the Tug Hill Plateau, and extending east across northern Lewis County with light to moderate accumulations possible. Thursday and Thursday evening will be the most active time period as a potent clipper crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Deeper moisture and ascent associated with the clipper will likely produce a few snow showers and minor accumulations areawide late Thursday and Thursday evening. More importantly, the large scale ascent, deep moisture, and pool of cold air aloft associated with the clipper will bring a period of very favorable lake parameters. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rocket to almost 20K feet briefly around the time of the clipper passage, with model point soundings showing steep lapse rates extending all the way up to the tropopause. Thunder and lightning are a distinct possibility late Thursday along intensifying lake effect bands, especially over and east of Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, expect weak lake effect snow showers across the Niagara Frontier in southwest flow through early afternoon. These will then strengthen as low level convergence increases ahead of the clipper cold front, with this strengthening band moving quickly onshore and into the western Southern Tier by evening. This may drop at least a few inches of accumulation from the Niagara Frontier southward into the western Southern Tier with a rapidly moving band, and advisory amounts are not out of the question in some areas. Off Lake Ontario, the setup looks even more favorable. Lake effect snow will move from the northern Tug Hill into central or northern Jefferson County on Thursday. The lake band will then start to merge with the clipper cold front and rapidly intensify by late afternoon, moving south across the Tug Hill region during the evening and eventually breaking apart into multiple bands southeast of the lake overnight. Convergence and instability look stronger over Lake Ontario than Lake Erie, so this band may have intense snowfall rates as it moves southeast across the area. The lake effect snow Wednesday night and early Thursday may also be healthier than Lake Erie. Considering the event as a whole from Wednesday night through Thursday night, potential is there for at least moderate accumulations and possibly watch/warning criteria amounts in some areas. At this early juncture the greatest accumulations look to be across the northern Tug Hill region where the band will have greatest residence time. Later Thursday night boundary layer flow becomes northwest in the wake of the clipper. Mid level drying and increasing subsidence will bring lake induced equilibrium levels back down to around 8K feet. Expect weaker multiple bands of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes overnight. An upstream connection to Georgian Bay may develop into Lake Ontario overnight, and this has some potential to cross the Rochester area from NE to SW late Thursday night as boundary layer flow veers. If that were to occur, a few inches of accumulation is possible

Yep lol Your not suppose to distribute the euro from any site including WB and Vista but people do anyway lol Its better then social media where many more people will see it I will add that I have been trying to keep my Euro posting to a minimum, using the free site weather.us to post snowfall accumulations..

Could be decent for the metro as well.. Obviously Know more once hi rez guidance starts to get into range..

To much SW for my liking , Gfs is best case scenario at the moment...

Could get interesting for our new friend Shea..

Gfs says we do this again next weekend..

0z Gfs has a stronger "transient" band then 18z...

By WED evening ..

End of an era for me as i finally dumped WB Lol Went with freaks recommendation, weather models.com Half the price with more models/runs Just testing out the Ukmet GIF Not often we know what this model shows, usually top 2/3 in 500 mb verification.. Doesn't look so bad NE of the lake , for a higher rez model..

This would be absolutely absurd, especially down there..