wolfie09

Snowfall rates will average one inch per hour in the organized lake bands early this morning...but could generate up to two inches of snow per hour when the deepest convection could occur during the midday and afternoon. The convective depth should easily exceed 10k ft...and with the -10c isotherm around 5k ft...favorable conditions will be in place for electrification of the more organized bands. Have thus added some thunder and lightning to the forecast. If you are looking for thundersnow...the most likely area for electrification will be on the Tug Hill late today and this evening. Snowfall amounts today will range from 4-7 inches across parts of Jefferson County to 3 to 5 inches over much of the IAG Frontier...particularly the northern half of Erie County. While the areas of greatest concern will be in the above outlined areas of lake effect...the first of two cold fronts will push across the region late this afternoon/early this evening. This should bring an inch or so accumulation of snow to areas outside of the lake effect...so slick roadways can eventually be expected regionwide. Winds will veer to 260-280 just ahead of and in the vcnty of the first cold front later today...so as mentioned the organized lake snows will push south of the BUF and metro areas as we advance through the evening commute. There is still not high confidence that winds will veer fast enough to prevent problems in these metro areas between 4 and 6 PM...especially in the ART area. As we push through tonight...a second...reinforcing cold front will make its way through our region. The steering flow will further veer to around 300 during the wee hours of the morning...while a notably drier synoptic environment will accompany a cap that will drop well below 10k ft. This will weaken the lake snows that will be southeast of both lakes in the more typical lake snow belt areas. On Friday a cold northwesterly flow will remain entrenched across our region...in between departing low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. While this will maintain some lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes...these should mainly be on the lighter side given the short fetch and capping inversion around 4-6 kft...which should help hold accumulations to the 1-2 inch range for the most part. Otherwise it will just be mainly dry and cold... with highs ranging from the lower 20s across the North Country to the mid 20s elsewhere.

I like to see KFzy get 8”-12”.. They obviously see something I do not ..

Just missing out on the brunt of it.. Should still get grazed with some light snow this morning..

Boy it sucks how often the NWS lacks radar representation off Ontario.. More then half the LES Archive page has no montague radar.. This may be the most impressive event off Ontario that I have seen so far.. Near 90” in parish in 3.5 days..

Not if the NAM models are correct lol If the band is this thin we'd be lucky to see a few inches.. The predominant flow is out of the SW, our best shot was a slow moving band as the flow veers SW-NW behind the front..

Jefferson and Lewis upgraded to warning.. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Greatest amounts across the Tug Hill, and also in the Watertown area. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph may also produce areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

KART Nearing a foot now.. Reduced slightly in Oswego County.. Increased KBUF Slightly..

Keep an eye on sat as well... A shortwave trough will track across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. The added moisture and ascent from this wave will promote a chance of snow showers with the potential for some lake enhanced snows east of the lakes, where some minor accumulation will be possible.

Not seeing this 5"-8" the NWS has at KFZY They are looking at a tenth to a quarter on every meso, if that..This is basically just a cold front passage for most of the county, nothing sustained.. I'm not necessarily seeing the 6"-11" in my backyard as well.. Unless we see 15-1 ratios along the frontal passage , who knows, hopefully i'm wrong..

Not lake Ontartio Lake New jersey http://brigantinebeachlive.com/

The models are trying, just with not so much consistency.. Majority of them are in the ballpark..

Nam products looking a little better east of L.Ontario.. Not sure what ratios are looking like but this would be at the very least a nice 5"-7" snowfall..

South east NJ seeing their own micro-climate today in the form of an inverted trough..Some area's could see 6+ while just down the road flurries..

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Occasional lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, with the greatest amounts expected across the Tug Hill. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel conditions could be hazardous at times, and could impact the morning or evening commute.

Rgem still a very nice hit for the metro, really likes the SW flow..

0z 3K nam not as friendly.. General 3"-6" at 10-1..

Looks like next chance at a true synoptic system will be mid month, majority ecm indv members show a storm , granted mostly inland lol

NWS Cleveland‏Verified account @NWSCLE 6h6 hours ago More A look at some of the Ohio DOT cams near the Cuyahoga Valley National Park and Boston Heights area showing that localized #Cleveland #Effect #Snow band as of midday. Could see some accumulations with that band. http://www.ohgo.com #OHwx #PAwx #Ohio #ThisIsCLE #CLEwx #NWS

Seems like a reasonable forecast for the most part.. We will have to "dink and dunk" are way to a decent december...

Beautiful scenario for you kbuf guys, granted it's coming from the ukmet..

Going to be a close call here between some nuisance snows or something decent..

Here is the 6z.. Euro continues to go up and down imby but for the most part likes more wsw/sw off Ontario..