wolfie09

Starting to see a trend towards the euro and mostly a non event for this weekend..

More dinking and dunking..

New wrinkle on the GFS.. Following up the intial system with a northern stream disturbance ..

Good thing that’s a probability map and not anomaly lol Euro even brings some accumulating snow to northern Nj with the next system.. It can snow in a bad pattern just probably not sustainable..

GFS Dosen't look to bad.. The last 7-10 days of the month look to be cold/snowy, from this vantage pount.. Active pattern with several chances at some snow..

Models sttill all over the place for early next weeks system.. Granted it's majority rain if we indeed see precip.. Starting to see some backside flakes showing up.. Big timing difference also..

Good shot at some white before Christmas according to the GEFS..

Just in time for xmas..

Ukmet mslp

Euro is on the eastern side of guidance, therefore more wintry..

The downside to the changing pattern will be that there will be a large and potentially problematic storm system that will plague much of the eastern third of the country by the weekend. The mainstream guidance packages are still having trouble resolving the evolution of this system...but there is increasing confidence that a large southern stream system will make its way across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday...before making a turn to the northeast Friday night and Saturday. It is the timing of this turn and subsequent track that are still being `debated` though. The deepening and ever expanding storm system could make its way northward along the western slopes of the Appalachians...or track further east and possibly off the Mid Atlantic coast. After a dry but cloudy day to start on Thursday...the above discussed storm system will create deteriorating conditions across our region Thursday night into the weekend. Will maintain the general thinking from continuity...which is that the storm system will cut west of the Appalachians and produce a fairly long period of rainy mild weather. Confidence in this solution is not high though. A more eastward track would lead to notably lower precipitation amounts and possibly some wintry p-types. Stay tuned.

Band is a bit disorginized .. We are riding the northern edge as the band still has a northern tilt to it..More like a WNW Flow 280 vector.. RGEM seems to be doing ok so far, keeps the heaviest between fulton and Altmar most of the night..

Definitely a little more "westerly" on the latest RGEM.. "jacpots" Central part of the county..

Just dumping snow right now, enormous flake size.. we won't need much precip for this stuff to add up lol Interesting to see what happens with the band later this afternoon, NMM backs winds out of the west while some others keep it wnw.. King city radar looks more westerly at the moment with OBS confirming that.. Either way not going to be a huge event, but it's something!

WWA issued for Oswego and N Cayuga.. Intial burst getting set to move through, band is forming just behind it..

Seems plausable..

19 degrees with big puffy flakes and the sun out lol Second day in a row we accomplished that.. Beautiful nontheless..

Rain to snow on the latest installment of the GFS for mid month..

Little surprised the NWS didn’t issue WWA..

We are moving on up an inch at a time lol

Could be a fulton area "special" as well..

NMM

You mean like this lol

Looks like this is gonna be a fun storm, either way..

I guess it’s something A passing clipper system will generate some accumulating lake effect snow Saturday and Saturday night. While a general 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is currently forecast...higher localized accumulations of 4 inches or more are not out of the question