wolfie09

May be our best shot at a white christmas

Getting some pretty heavy snow at the moment, mixing with graupel..

Euro has some decent accumulation over WNY on the backside of this system..

It would take a lot for this upcoming storm to be mostly frozen but a good start would be a trend towards the ukmet, which goes through E/C NY..

I guess i was hoping for some wrap around flakes lol The exact track will determine how quickly we change over, if we do at all.. It wasn't long ago when today's storm was rain for everyone..

Obviously way out there but I don’t think we see a green Christmas..

Switched over to some wet flakes after starting off with some drizzle..

Euro has some snow on christmas day, couple inches or so..As well as the GFS Para..

It’s actually pretty nice out at the moment all though a breeze is starting to kick up..Not sure it precipitates hard enough to lower temps much..

Let’s see how this looks a week from now behind the cutter/Apps runner.. All global models show back end snow at this juncture..

Best chance for some accumulating snow should be on monday with the cold front..

Been watching christmas day as well with another northern stream disturbance swinging through..

42° day but feels like 50s, beautiful early spring like day..

Awesome pattern Haha Things wanna cut this year, thats 4 sure.. We may be able to survive but not the coast lol

Starting to think preicp may make it up here, but in what variety lol

Nice little bump NW on the NAM, maybe catch a few flakes.. Edit: Nice bump up from 12z , similar to 18z..

Thats what u call a real white christmas lol Might as well start concentrating on the 21st-25th time period.. GFS Para has 3 Events during that time frame..

Euro also has a rain storm changing to snow on the 21st/ 22nd before bringing another clipper through on christmas eve with some lake effect snow showers..

GFS pre Xmas

Congrats SE NY..

A strong cold front will blast through the area with gusty cold advection likely on Monday. Inversion height rise rather rapidly and lake-induced instability maximizes southeast of the lakes on Monday. This will be especially true over Lake Ontario. Shear in the unstable layer reduces and a period of maybe 9 or so hours of lake effect snow seems likely southeast of the lakes. At the moment, with the better instability and fetch off of Lake Ontario, accumulations were ramped up there, however model trends will need to be monitored as higher resolution guidance becomes available, as headlines in briefly moderate/heavy lake effect snow may be possible.