Kbuf
Surface low pressure will continue to track off to the northeast
into Quebec Friday night. Cold air advection behind this system cold
front will gradually transition precipitation over from rain to snow
showers. However, this change over will be a slow process from west
to east as the 850 thermal boundary moves eastward and then becomes
cold enough behind the front to support snow. Even with the change
over accumulations at this point look meager with the main system
and its deformation zone already for the most departed our region.
With continued strong cold air advection behind this system
overnight, 850T are expected to fall between -6C to
-9C by early Saturday morning. There will be some minor accumulating
snow behind the cold front. Although, with the loss of deep synoptic
moisture and with the system pulling away lake response will be
limited off both lake Erie and Ontario. Snowfall amounts at this
point, having mentioned the limiting factors, will likely only
support amounts in the range of 1 to 3 inches at best. Possibly a
few isolated higher amounts in some favored upslope-higher terrain
locations. Elsewhere, lower elevation can expect amounts of an inch
or less of accumulation.
Saturday, the system continues to further pull further away from the
area off into the Canadian Maritimes. There will be continued
scattered snow showers especially east and southeast of both lakes
with brisk and chilly northwesterly flow across the CWA. Saturday
evening, weak ridging will build in aloft, with drier air continuing
to filter into the Lower Great Lakes, expect any residual snow
showers to diminish across the region. With ridging building
overhead, a brief period of relatively quiet and dry conditions can
be expected Saturday night.