wolfie09

As expected the euro indv ensembles are all over the place for the 26/27th.. Anywhere from a straight cutter to a double barrel low and plenty that shred the crap out of it..

I still have some faith over the next 10 days or so.. Prettty inpressive for an ensemble mean..

We had an above average Nov and below avg Dec, shlt happens lol

U would think we live in boston with zero inches of snow lol Last time i checked 3 days ago, all ny state ciies were above avg in the snow department..

Could be a recipe for ice if the HP is a little more west(slower to move out), locking in cold air at the surface..

We still have time for that HP to be better positioned.. The system would be forced to undercut it or redevelop which several GEFS members are hinting at..

Nothing wrong with saving a little propane lol Shaping up to be a beautiful day.. I pretty much open windows once we hit 40 degrees, which is were i am at now.. Almost makes me want spring, Almost..

Yup lol

I care only about the backside of this system, with plenty of moisture and 850mb temps dropping to -12/13c and a mean westerly trajectory...

Thats what i like to see..

3k at hr 60 looks similar to the 12k nam..

Nam still giving some hope.. I noticed the 12z/0z are much snowier then 6z/18z lol

Mean

Some big indv members over the next 2 weeks.. I would guess many of them are from a strom system aroound the 26th/27th..

Yup Everyone always wants the cold, now enjoy it HAHA (not necessarily you lol) Avg high in winter is in the upper 20's , avg to slighty above avg is fine by me.. Why some want negative anomalies in upstate ny during winter, i have no clue lol

Yes please.. Would guarntee a white christmas .. Looks like a general west-west northwesterly flow, pops raised to 60%..

It's a little comical, if you look at the top image u can see it go from 99% to 60% right over pulaski lol I'm starting to think they are the rip off zone of oswego county lol Especially when it comes to p-type.. The funny thing is the majority of folks in fulton think it snows way more in pulaski, not sure that is the case..

EPS % of greater then 1" snow depth christmas morning..

Sunday night and Monday the medium range guidance remains in general agreement on a modest clipper system traversing our region from west to east...while providing us a general chance for some snow showers. With the clipper and its parent upper level trough also helping to re-introduce some colder air aloft...a general westerly flow may also lead to some areas of lake enhanced snows over areas east of the lakes. In the wake of this system...another surface ridge and attendant drier air then looks to build across our region Christmas Eve...which should translate into diminishing lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes...and mainly dry weather elsewhere. After that...the various guidance packages diverge rather radically with respect to the timing and track of the next system Tuesday and Wednesday...with rather poor model-to-model and run-to-run consistency noted over the last 24 hours. On the one extreme is the ECMWF which is considerably faster and much further south...which would favor below normal temperatures along with chances of snow showers returning by as early as Christmas Day...while on the other is the GFS which is slower and much further north... which would allow for a dry Christmas Day followed by a return of well above average temperatures by the end of the period. Given these large differences and resultant very low forecast confidence...for now have just maintained general slight chance to low chance PoPs throughout the last couple days of this period...along with temperatures averaging out near normal.

Kbuf Surface low pressure will continue to track off to the northeast into Quebec Friday night. Cold air advection behind this system cold front will gradually transition precipitation over from rain to snow showers. However, this change over will be a slow process from west to east as the 850 thermal boundary moves eastward and then becomes cold enough behind the front to support snow. Even with the change over accumulations at this point look meager with the main system and its deformation zone already for the most departed our region. With continued strong cold air advection behind this system overnight, 850T are expected to fall between -6C to -9C by early Saturday morning. There will be some minor accumulating snow behind the cold front. Although, with the loss of deep synoptic moisture and with the system pulling away lake response will be limited off both lake Erie and Ontario. Snowfall amounts at this point, having mentioned the limiting factors, will likely only support amounts in the range of 1 to 3 inches at best. Possibly a few isolated higher amounts in some favored upslope-higher terrain locations. Elsewhere, lower elevation can expect amounts of an inch or less of accumulation. Saturday, the system continues to further pull further away from the area off into the Canadian Maritimes. There will be continued scattered snow showers especially east and southeast of both lakes with brisk and chilly northwesterly flow across the CWA. Saturday evening, weak ridging will build in aloft, with drier air continuing to filter into the Lower Great Lakes, expect any residual snow showers to diminish across the region. With ridging building overhead, a brief period of relatively quiet and dry conditions can be expected Saturday night.