The Long Term period continues to promote uncertainty as models
diverge with the track and strength of a southern stream system. The
ECMWF continues to be the stronger solution, tracking a rapidly
deepening surface low southeast of the Lower Great Lakes and off the
coast of Maine by 12z Saturday. Cold air would be pushed into Canada
and temperatures would lead to rain and snow across western and
north central NY. On the contrary, the 12z GFS keeps the southern
stream across the Gulf Coast states while a shortwave, northern
stream system brings cold, snowy conditions across the forecast area
Friday-Saturday. Will keep with consistency for most of the region
with chance of rain and snow showers in the forecast however
increased chance to likely east of Lake Ontario. If the southern
stream system is suppressed to the south, that should allow colder
and snowier conditions across the forecast area