wolfie09

Models have a lot to figure out here. a warm front, cold front, digging shortwave, transfer, wrap around/lake enhancement etc One thing for certain it should be a high precip event, broken down into 2 parts, euro doubled its 12z output.. Obviously not all snow, euro is a little warmer with the intial warm front, giving a couple inches or so before mix/dz/lull.. It's the 2nd part of the event that we see the majority of our accumulation..Intially starting as light rain quickly turns into moderate snow..Need to wait on the meso-models to get into range for any potential enhancement..

Pretty potent follow up SW on the Ukmet/Gfs.. Gfs looks like some sore of IVT as well, which the ukmet seems to show too (just north) Euro dosen't seem as enthused as other guidance..

Can't decipher rain vs snow on the ukmet, but plenty of precipitation..

The year of dinkin and dunkin continues...

Some Mixing/rain unavoidable in this situation..

This system,a shortwave aloft, coupled with a weak surface low at the surface will approach the Lower Great Lakes from the Midwest. Light isentropic lift precipitation is possible through the afternoon hours of Monday, with then the main area of precipitation, coupled with lift ahead of the shortwave, crossing the region Monday night. P-type may be a little tricky, with perhaps a brief period of snow at the onset before warmer air increases ahead of the surface low in the lower levels and pushes the bulk of the air in the lower column of the atmosphere above freezing. Snow accumulation will be minor through Monday night across WNY, with perhaps an inch...but east of Lake Ontario where cooler air will remain several inches or more of snow is possible. Will continue to highlight this snow potential in the HWO. As the upper level shortwave passes us Monday night precipitation will end from west to east across much of the region. The next two systems of interest are still in the Pacific and as such, there`s somewhat lower confidence in timing. The first is located west of CA. This will be shortwave trough responsible for the surface trough that moves through Monday night, with lingering showers possible east of Lake Ontario early Tuesday. There should be a dry period behind the departing system on Tuesday based on current guidance, but for now will keep a chance of showers in the forecast until timing is better resolved. The second system is a little harder to pinpoint, but it will probably be associated with the 180kt jet currently riding along a weak amplitude long wave ridge and moving toward the Gulf of AK/along along the 45th parallel as seen with GOES 17 (preliminary and not operational). Once a shortwave trough is formed, it will move east across OR/WA and then through the northern plains, finally generating a discernible weak lee side surface low near MT or north in Alberta by Monday. It should then move east across the Central or Northern Great Lakes and finally across Southern Ontario/WNY by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Again, with timing a factor, there should be a break in precip, probably on Tuesday, but with temperatures profiles cold enough for primarily snow or transition from rain to snow moving in from the west late Tuesday and lasting through Tuesday Night. Behind this system, concerns then focus on the mesoscale with northwest flow and resultant lake effect, which should last from Wednesday into Thursday, but with no confidence on any specifics (location/intensity) at this time other than general wind direction High pressure should build into the region by Friday and ending any lake effect.

Guess im saying it looks cold and dry in the med-long range on the euro..

This is what's gonna happen when we get into a "favorable" pattern..lol

Yeah, thats pretty much what the euro shows.. Warmer with the intial warm front with more mixing and less snow.. Follow up wave along the CF is pretty weak, definitely not like the ukmet/gfs..Just some light rain/snow showrs.. Eventually a secondary get's going with an IVt along part of SNE and wrap around moisture on a nw flow for a good 18-24 hours..

Nice little SW though..

Cant tell temp profiles on the ukmet, i'll have a better idea when the euro come out.. Here was the gfs

Keep an eye on that follow up wave..

I'm taking it week by week and Next week looks mostly avg to slightly below for max temps, a little warmer for min temps(plenty of overcast)..Only one real warm day and that is tues which wont last long once the CF swings through.. Sunday A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Monday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night Snow. Low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation potential will increase from west to east Monday when a warm front extending southeast from low pressure centered north of Lake Superior approaches and then crosses our region Monday night. 00Z model consensus is slightly faster then previous guidance, with precipitation likely to reach western New York by Monday afternoon with steady precipitation in all areas by Monday night. It should be cold enough at the onset for precipitation to fall as primarily snow, and change over to rain by late Monday and early Tuesday morning as warm air advection ahead of the low pressure increases. Forecast soundings suggest snow may briefly mix with sleet at times before changing over to rain. Areas of the North Country and over higher terrain will take longer to change over to snow, and may stay as all snow as weaker warm air advection may fail to warm temperatures enough before the low and cold front pass. In most areas snow accumulation should be light, but across the North Country several inches of snow are possible. Will mention this in the HWO. As the low passes to the north of the area, a cold front will cross the region causing cold air advection to slowly cool temperatures and change any rain or rain/snow mix back to all snow Tuesday night. Areas of lake enhancement will be possible as the area of low pressure and primary swath of precipitation shift east. Lake enhancement will transition to lake effect as the main area of precipitation continues to shift east. Any lake enhancement and/or lake effect will be dependent on the strength of cold air advection and how cool 850Ts get. 850Ts will be marginal Tuesday night into Wednesday, but a shortwave and weak surface low will provide enough moisture and lift to support at least chance pops before pure lake effect snow can develop later Wednesday and Wednesday night. This does not appear to be a major event since moisture will become very limited by the time colder air arrives. Even so, some minor snow accumulations are likely southeast of the lakes.

New wrinkle being show by several models ..

The models are starting to look like a basic cold front lol But with plenty of overrunning precip ahead of the sytem..(moist SW flow riding over cold dome Hp)

GFS actually came in a little colder for cny and points NE

A thing of beauty,,

Is it going to be sunny out?

Models are strating to look worse for the 1st half of this system but better on the backside..