wolfie09

A robust shortwave trough will drop south across the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. The left exit region of a jet streak will promote cyclogenesis and low pressure will move north of Lake Erie and across Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. An associated cold front will move east across WNY during this time and rain and snow showers will spread across WNY. Temperatures and the wet-bulb effect will lower temperatures quickly Tuesday evening, first across the higher terrain and then across the Lake Plains overnight. East of Lake Ontario...Upward forcing will increase in vicinity of the low as it approaches overnight. A deformation zone will likely stretch from the northern shore of Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks by Wednesday morning. Rain is expected at lower elevations in the evening before changing to all snow by morning. Temperatures will be near or below freezing at higher elevations through the night and snow is expected Tuesday night. Due to the marginal temperatures, minor accumulations are expected and will be confined to the higher terrain with 1-2 inches expected by Wednesday morning. Low pressure will move into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate around a larger trough that is located across the Northeast. Northwest flow will setup across the eastern Great Lakes and cold air advection will transport cold, Canadian air into the region. Snow showers are expected into Wednesday evening as lake induced equilibrium levels increase and the dendritic snow growth zone lowers. Temperatures will hold steady during the day with temperatures in the mid 30`s along the lakeshore and mid to upper 20`s on the higher terrain. It won`t be until Wednesday afternoon when 850mb temperatures reach the minus teens C and lake effect enhancement gets going. Moist, northwest flow continues Wednesday night and lake induced instability really ramps up. Moderate to heavy snow is possible at times Wednesday night with the greatest accumulation across the higher terrain. Winter headlines may be needed Wed-Wed night.

Yea Nam is very euroish, gives me pretty much exactly 1 foot and still snowing..Cautiously optimistic..

Giving some credence to the euro..

That's from the warm front.. We have another more important system on Tuesday night-wed.. Models haven't handled this set up to well but we are getting there..

Ouch 18z nam takes away all snow with the warm front and replaces it with ice.. Over 1/2" on the tug..

Another strong mid level shortwave and associated surface low will reach the eastern Great Lakes very late Tuesday afternoon and evening. While model guidance is in good agreement with the large scale features, there are some differences in the finer details as to where the band of most persistent precipitation will develop with this system. The initial area of precipitation will be in the form of rain late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cold advection will increase Tuesday night, allowing the rain to change to snow later Tuesday night. Precipitation will be mainly snow by Wednesday morning, with the possible exception of the immediate lakeshores. Some minor accumulations are expected by daybreak Wednesday across higher terrain. Wednesday and Wednesday night a surface low will rapidly deepen over the Gulf of Maine before moving into the Canadian Maritimes. A deep mid level trough will carve out across the Great Lakes and New England, with several mid level shortwaves moving through the longwave trough. An extended period of moist northwest flow will setup across the eastern Great Lakes, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 8K feet with time. This will all support widespread snow showers and embedded areas of steadier light snow Wednesday and Wednesday night. The combination of lake enhancement and northwest upslope flow will bring accumulating snows to the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, Tug Hill, and western foothills of the Adirondacks. This may require winter headlines as the details become more apparent and confidence increases on the timing and placement of heavier snow amounts. Even across the lower elevations of the lake plains expect some modest accumulations during this time period. It will also be quite windy Wednesday and Wednesday night with some blowing and drifting snow in areas which receive accumulation.

And sunday night lol probably a little overboard me think..

Friday night and sat night.. Temps struggle to get out of the single digits on sat..

If i ever needed the euro to be correct it's now lol The majority of this is frozen for northern oswego county, a little rain mixed in during the "lull"

Gfs para digs this SW down into the northern MA.. At the same time the ggem is in northern ny state and ukmet in south central NY..

Haha thanks, but that's not my house I'll let my neighbor down the street know u think so I originally purchased a house a mile or two away but failed inspection so i backed out.. This is my crib, haven't had enough snow to get good pics this year, bought the pixel 3 for nothing .. The one thing that must change is how wide open it is lol Need to start growing more "trees"..

But every once in a while we get these "clunkers"

Altmar 1st week of april, obviously more snow as u head up in elevation..

I was house hunting at the end of last march into april and redfield still had cars burried under snow!! Heck we still had a foot+ here in the lower elevations..

Once winter "starts" will it end haha I don't wanna be shoveling into may lol

Cold enough to snow aloft but surface temps won't budge..

Warm/wet , cold/dry.. No reason for that to change now lol Starting to think Jan will be a pile of shlt too lol After this upcoming event we will be dominated by HP for several days, things will change but as of now we are pretty dry on the majority of models heading into mid month.. It's funny that tonight is projected to get down to 6° and Thursday-sat struggling to make it into the mid 20s for highs, but tomorrow through Wednesday we rain/slop fest.. That's not "no cold air" that's bad luck lol

Problem is, will take time to cool the column..Most of the stuff on the gfs is lake enhancement, which is anybody's guess at the moment..