wolfie09

Guess u didn't read the description lol Started out west and then veered wnw.. That was also a true LES event, this is a hybrid/lake enhancement event..Much different circumstances..

Here is another one.. An active pattern for December continued, with this fourth event of the season coming quickly on the heels on the third, which ended just the previous day. This event evolved as complex hybrid event, in which snow accumulations off of Lake Erie were driven more by pure lake effect, while the snow accumulations off of Lake Ontario more a combination of synoptic, upslope and lake effect snow. A mid-level wave moved across the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning producing a widespread light snowfall. During the day Tuesday, the mid-level wave deepened into a closed off low while a surface low deepened across northern New England and southeast Quebec. The deepening system to our east allowed for ample wrap around moisture to move back into our region Tuesday night along and behind a secondary cold front. The synoptic snow became lake enhanced by Tuesday afternoon as 850mb temperatures plummeted to around -16C by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning on the backside of the departing low pressure system. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the event transitioned into mainly into lingering lake effect east and southeast of both lakes

Guess it depends where your facing. i know very little about upslope lol While some lake effect snow is possible early Wednesday on a west wind over the Tug Hill, the feeling now is that a northwest wind will highlight the upslope areas of the northwest face of the Tug Hill, such as Carthage, Copenhagen and Fort Drum tomorrow

Yet the updated P&C forecast for KFZY has 1"-3" wed night lol Wednesday Snow. Areas of blowing snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers. Low around 20. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Pouring out.. Just wanna get this over with lol Still have a few inches of snow on the ground underneath a sheet of ice..

Nmm not as friendsly but still a nice run.. Keep in mind it's still snow on all meso-models ..

I'm rooting for you dave

I know what model "most" of oswego county folks will be rooting for.. ONly till thursday morning, still snowing..

All good bro.. If u notice it says "Oswego county" and not tug hill, doesn't mean they won't see the most but fair game for everyone in the county..

That map should be updated shortly, was put out before WSW was issued..

Here is the one for Oswego county ..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph causing areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible.

Too bad it wasn't a little colder lol Would be a 2 foot event.. Instead we waste about 3/4" on liquid.. Ukmet has around 2" totals liquid, changeover should come around 3-4 am wed..

That was a hybrid event on a NW flow which was alluded to by the NWS.. That's the event KBGM even recorded 2 feet.. Depends on the situation, multi bands is fair game for almost anyone in the county, single band usually with GB connection is south of oswego county..Fulton needs a single band WNW.. Rose plots say 270 vector is the least likely wind direction, redfield gotta get there snow somehow lol

I thought the tug usually uplsopes pretty good during NW events, just not so far this year.. Like the event a couple years back.. Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult travel. Very persistent upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day period.

Gfs has a similar look but it's still a miss, to much confluence..

Kuchera ratios sitting at 15-18/1 starting early thursday morning..

Rgem seems a little warmish with near 2" of liquid here split between rain and then snow..Granted it's still snowing..

This looks good..

Verbatim not much different from 6z except south of syracuse, big uptick for that area.. Pretty much double digits for all of oswego county with a max of 15" a couple miles to my north..

6z at the same hour

3k nam agrees and takes the heavy precip with it..

Thats also at 10-1..The lake enhancement overnight should bring better ratios..(wed night)