wolfie09

Heaviest snow I have seen so far.. Down in Syracuse lol Near the airport.. Sun trying to peak out as well..

NMM starts it back up between 4pm-6pm. Some of this is precipitation from this morning, mostly on the tug..

GFS para and ggem both have a northern stream disturbance during that timeframe as they miss the phase..

System to watch around the 19th as well.. Mixed bag on the euro..

At least it will be coolder this evening, hopefully we can cash in on some decent ratios..

High Rez Canadian which is doing well right now, keeps us dry till 7-8 pm..

I love how i'm grouped in with the tug hill when im not lol "foothills", "gateway", "tug hill region" sure but not actually on the hill lol Today Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 10am. High near 34. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 22. West wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Snow. High near 22. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...it will be a bit of a different story initially as the airmass across that lake will really not become cold enough for true lake effect to develop until later this afternoon or early this evening. Instead...the bulk of any snows for a good chunk of today will be more orographically- enhanced in nature and primarily found east of Lake Ontario on a general northwesterly flow...with accumulations of as much as 4 to 8 inches found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western slopes of the Adirondacks...while lower amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be more common across the lower elevations. To the southeast of Lake Ontario...a narrow swath of relatively drier air and the lack of a sufficiently cold airmass will likely preclude much in the way of lake effect until later this afternoon... after which time increasingly colder air...deepening moisture... and an increasingly northwesterly fetch will allow lake effect snows to develop and then continue right through tonight. With some directional shear in place and with less terrain enhancement to work with...the Lake Ontario lake snows will likely be less impressive than their Lake Erie counterparts...but will probably still be organized enough to produce a general 3-6" across Monroe/ Ontario counties between late today and tonight...with as much as 5-8" falling during this same time frame across the Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Southern Oswego county corridor. Meanwhile further to the north...continued orographically-driven snows will likely produce another 4-7" across the higher terrain of the rest of the eastern Lake Ontario region tonight...with another 2-4" likely across the lower elevations.

Temps slowly dropping, down to 33.5 according to the nearest WU station..Flake size has increased as well..Obviously very wet in nature.. We need to drop down towards freezing soon..

Blah lol Not a huge fan on how this one is starting.. Coming down nicely at the moment, been keeping track of the hrrr which has most of the heaviest stuff just to my east, KFZY would be lucky to see an inch by midnight if it was correct.. Radar doesn't look great at the moment..As most of this stuff will probably miss me to the east with nothing behind it for the moment..

Same thing happened here, we flipped picked up a coating and then back to a mix lol Precip is also very light at the moment, which could be the culprit..

Yeah, normally this is a good look but it is forced to transfer and jets ENE..

Nws has worst case scenerio 6"-8" and best case 18"-24" I will say all the the meso models are JP the same area as the november system.. With 12"-20" for northern oswego, southern jefferson at 10-1..

Last snowmap before the event starts unfolding..

Flipped to snow here, sticking with no problem..

Max of 20" on the 3k nam..

Yeah, wouldnt surprise me.. Cold enough aloft, surface 33°-35°, could easily be snow..

Change over time for Oswego county between 4-5am, north to south..

Come to think of it we just had a hybrid event at the end of November, no? Picked up 14"-15" in a 2 days span..

Best case scenario.

High rez canadian is quite wet, granted not all snow.. Max of 2.5" liquid in the boylston area and still snowing..

To bad it won't make it up here with that HP coming down..

Pretty much no snow from the shortwave itself.. Have to depend on all lake enhancement..