wolfie09

Some of those members look like the canadian, keep that in mind lol

wow lol

Last 2 runs with ratios..

For kicks..

Euro is a little bit south.. Couple inches come from friday's event, for some..

Seen this posted on another board..

Ukmet is one model well SE of 0z

KBGM Things could then get very interesting Saturday afternoon, Sunday and Sunday night as a potential winter storm approaches the area. Guidance has come into better agreement that upper level energy will emerge across the southern Plains/Texas panhandle region Friday evening; with a surface low redeveloping in the lee of the Rockies likely over Oklahoma. This system looks to have ample moisture associated with it as it tracks across the US. There looks to be some phasing with a northern stream disturbance...but the details such as exact track and precipitation amounts remains uncertain. Felt confident enough to bump PoPs up to high end likely Saturday evening into Sunday. Current guidance would suggest snow breaks out from SW to NE across our forecast late in the day Saturday as strong isentropic lift develops, and moisture is forced up and over the low level cold dome of air already in place. Overall the consensus is for a strengthening surface low to pass by to our south, across the Mid-Atlantic, and perhaps turn the corner, moving along the eastern sea board. Ensemble means and model consensus, show a good chance for average QPF amounts around three-quarters of an inch Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...with WPC ranging from about 0.50" NW to 1.25" SE of liquid. Its too early to pinpoint any specific, possible snow amounts, and there is even some potential for a wintry mix across portions of NE PA, depending on the track of the low. Snow ratios could be high in parts of the area with this type of set up...but again we will have to wait and see how this plays out. This period will certainly need to be watched very closely though as the potential for a plowable snowfall is increasing for much of our forecast area. Temperatures are tricky and will depend on where the above mentioned storm system tracks. It does look to be trending colder, with below average temperatures likely over the weekend and into early next week.

Nothing to block this anymore..At least as it stands now.. We just need perfectly timed phase lol

Ggem is rain to snow..Goes right over my house lol

With ratios

haha

Look at the difference of the Hp in the last 2 runs..

German is similar to the gfs para..

First event , cold front wed..

Eventually the models going to hit confluence, I'm guessing it took the UK to cny before shunted east lol Or a transfer..

Extended version of the ukmet.

In 2019, as a result of the recent tenfold increase in computing power, an upgrade to the GFS model is planned that will increase its horizontal resolution to 9 km and 128 layers out to 16 days, compared to the current run of 13 km and 64 layers out to 10 days. Long-term plans are for the GFS to receive a new core with dynamic scaling that uses the finite volume method. The resulting model, being developed under the name FV3, will retain the GFS moniker.[9] The proposal comes after eight years of testing a potential replacement model, the flow-following, finite-volume icosahedral model; the FIM proved to be slower and not appreciably more accurate than the GFS. Initial testing of the FV3 showed promise, outperforming the Integrated Forecast System in terms of hurricane tracks during the 2017 hurricane season (the IFS had been the most accurate operational model in predicting the paths).

GFS para was a nice run, region wide 6"-12".. Could be a lot more with one bump north lol I'll try not to get to greedy..